Laugh or Cry

Doing our shopping I always glance at the newspaper headlines. I was first of all stunned by the Daily Express and then unsure whether to laugh or cry. They cite the good growth figures pre Brexit as proof that Brexit is working. This is so untrue it defies any sane interpretation.

The truth appears to be that the stock market has done fairly well but the real economy very badly. The odds on a recession are 50:50. Certainly there was a remarkably positive reaction once the initial dismay was past but no one seriously foresees anything but trouble.

It is worth noting that one reason for the "make the most of what we've got" reaction in business is that Theresa May is a reasonably sane PM and so is Hammond as Chancellor. The real loonies didn't get too close although Liam Fox is a likely trouble maker. I see that he is still suffering from pre referendum illusions although I'm not sure how he will react when exposed to reality.

The Leavers have had a bonus in that the plunging pound has been matched by sliding oil prices so fuel prices are not changing much.

The stock market reaction is actually more nuanced than indices appear. Companies which mainly trade in the UK are down except where they are regulated utilities. There has been a flight to the relative safety of the regulated utilities.The international companies like Unilever which earn almost all their money overseas may profit from a lower pound and have done well. Actually Unilever which accounts in euros isn't a good example, better would be somebody such as Rolls-Royce.

No Highway

Our U3A bookgroup has decided, at my suggestion, to periodically choose a book outside the Staffordshire Libraries reading lists. I chose No Highway by Nevil Shute partly because of the interesting story which surrounds it. The book describes the investigation into the then little known subject of metal fatigue. Although a good tale about the  investigation it was lent great topicality by surrounding events. The fictional scientist concerned is so worried about the safety of the new airliner he is investigating that he retracts the undercarriage on the ground to prevent it flying. In the story he is eventually vindicated, marries an air stewardess and all ends happily.

At that time (early fifties ) air travel was expensive, noisy, slow and gave a lot of vibration. The piston engine airliners of the time such as the Lockheed Constellation and the Boeing Stratocruiser lacked the range to fly to the US non stop. It was normal to refuel at airports like Shannon on the west coast of Ireland or Gander in Newfoundland. The pride of British Aviation was the world’s first jet airliner, the Comet. Much faster and much less vibration, airlines were queueing up to buy. It entered service in 1952.

After surmounting initial teething problems there were two major crashes, one in the Mediterranean and one off Calcutta. Amid great consternation the Comet was withdrawn from service and a giant investigation began. Known by the last letters of their registration Yoke Uncle and Yoke Peter had become notorious.

A giant water tank to take a complete fuselage was built at Farnborough and cycled through pressurisation. It was found that metal fatigue had resulted in cracks at the corners of the square windows. The major US manufacturers armed with this knowledge introduced jet airliners later in the fifties ( the Boeing 707 became the most famous ) and swept the world market. Although the Comet was redesigned and rebuilt its moment had gone and only trivial numbers were sold.

Shute’s book was held to foreshadow and dramatise the previously little known area of metal fatigue. Before his writing career Shute was an aircraft engineer and his book has plenty of technical detail.

The British aviation industry never again built a really successful airliner. While Rolls Royce is presently one of the top three world engine manufacturers otherwise the British industry is a bit part player. At present Airbus wings are partly made in the UK although even this is in doubt after Brexit.

Whitby saga

Some time ago I said we were buying a flat in Whitby. We have changed horses in mid stream and now we are buying another one and dropping the first. It has all come about in a strange way which I can only describe by telling the full story.

In January while we were on holiday Martin and Lindsey saw flats advertised which they thought would suit us in an old property in the centre of Whitby. The property, built in 1816, stands on a ridge and looks over the west of Whitby, the Esk river and over to the start of the North York Moors. As soon as we returned we went up to view the two flats for sale, one on the ground floor, one on the first floor immediately above.

Alex had noted that from the upper flat he could see the station and the occasional service out along the North York Moors Railway. The upper flat was still occupied but was rather larger than the ground floor flat which, although nominally with two bedrooms, the second was very small and could have only accommodated bunk beds or one single bed.

We decided to bid for the upper flat but found we were in a bidding battle with another prospective purchaser. We made what we thought was a knock out bid, considerably more than the asking price, because the property appeared to meet all our requirements, Annette was keen so we stretched to the limit. We were devastated to find we were the losing bidder and withdrew hurt.

After a month we decided that we would compromise on the ground floor flat. It had much the same view ( from a lower level of course ) and we decided that the pro’s outweighed the cons. We were also caught by the new tax on property for rent which came in April.

We then proceeded with all the usual enquiries etc. and were nearing contract exchange when the estate agent phoned to say the original successful bidder for the upper flat had pulled out and asking if we were still interested. Within a couple of days we decided to bid again for the upper flat. We were able to buy the survey they had done ( which was reasonably OK ) and decide they had fair reasons to pull out. They already occupy a large  upper floor maisonette on Whitby sea front and were looking to downsize and move to ground level.

We have just been to see the upper floor flat which we last saw in early February and satisfy ourselves it is the property we want. Basically it has a largish living room, two bedrooms ( both en suite ) no principal bathroom but a decent sized kitchen. Lindsey came with us and made some important suggestions. The second bedroom ( actually over part of the entrance hall ) isn’t large and probably will only comfortably fit a double bed while the main bedroom is L shaped, will take two single beds and a work desk or table with ease.

The house ( essentially a massive Georgian semi ) as a whole is 2 star listed and was split into six flats about 10 years ago after a long stint ( with internal communication to the next door property) as municipal offices.

The entrance hall and staircase is rather grand, wide, and sweeping up to a large landing. Entrance to two other flats, one at roof level and one to the rear is from this large landing. Our choice is also off this landing. In addition there is a basement flat and rear ground floor flat. The property stands on a ridge with the ground falling away sharply to Pannett Park just across the road from the property. Access by car is from the rear and there are wide steps to the side up from the main road. Just by the house proper are two flats at ground floor level, possibly originally stables.

Hopefully much of the legal work will read over and we should proceed to exchange quite quickly now.

The commercial

Not a normal blog just to advertise Alpha Arts and Crafts. Son Martin has the cottage part of his house available for holiday letting. Details are on his website- AlphaHolidayCottage. A tab on this directs you to Alpha Crafts and Art.

Checking this out it seems to be all the larger more expensive work. Much is available as cards at a cheaper price ( much cheaper at 4 for £5). I think maybe the information is on Etsy. The cards have pretty much the same images as the larger works.

Normal service will be resumed.

Culture Wars

Coined to describe some recent American battles in the social sphere it seems probable this is coming, if not already here, in the UK. To describe one aspect of these battles there is a very vicious one over abortion. The word is avoided and the two sides describe themselves as pro-choice ( pro abortion ) and pro-life ( anti abortion ). There are culture wars in many other aspects of social policy such as drugs and pornography.

It has long puzzled me why the US has on one hand a very strait laced religious society and on the other the most permissive environment to pornography. The American situation is not helped by the Supreme Court referring back to the constitution which for the most part is nearly 250 years old written at a time when nothing approaching a 21^st century society was foreseen. While the Supreme Court has a wide remit in interpreting the constitution it is also a politicised body. Thus free speech is interpreted as permitting almost anything.

The American impasse is vividly shown in the attitude to guns. While mass shootings have become almost commonplace the right to bear arms is enshrined the constitution and supported by a large gun lobby.

How might this translate to the UK. Race is never far below the surface in America and despite the supposed British tolerance I suspect the same here. The Leavers very successfully exploited the race card in the recent referendum. Islamic extremists are doing their best to increase religious divisions and one has to say having some success. Because religion and race are closely linked in Britain it is easy for divisions to exist. Although most white indigenous Britons are only nominal Christians we do have a Christian culture where grafts from other religions  ( eg over festivals ) are awkward and resented by some.

The UK split was very vividly shown in the recent EU referendum. This has shown us split old-young, north-south, educated- less educated. The strength of feeling aroused will not quickly go away.

And then we have good old fashioned nationalism. Not yet a cultural divide but one of difficulty in Scotland and Northern Ireland for anyone who values the united in United Kingdom.

Other cultural battlegrounds seem certain: pro or anti nuclear power, pro or anti high speed rail, pro or anti wind farms and pro or anti fracking just to select a few topics arousing strong opinions. Although debate may appear superficially to be rational you don’t need to look too closely to see raw emotions.

One cultural issue which I feel strongly about is the supernatural. Probably a majority of the population believe in some sense of the supernatural ranging through a spectrum of “fairies in the bottom of the garden” through to “ there are things we don’t know”. Yes there are many things we don’t know but ghoulies and ghosts aren’t one of them. Give me evidence and I’ll believe but the evidence just isn’t there.

Artificial Intelligence

I must talk a bit more about the referendum.  Reading more about the vote I see it was more nuanced than I thought at first. While immigration was the dominant feature there was also a inarticulate cry of anger by those who feel disadvantaged. A sort of “sod you, I’ll be poorer but you’ll be worse off “. This was not just about the EU but an inarticulate shout against social liberalism.

However onto the main topic, Artificial Intelligence

There has been much hoo-ha about this in recent months. Hopefully I can set out what is achieved and make some guesses about the future. Artificial Intelligence ( AI ) has been of research interest for years and until recently had disappointed. However since 2011 or so AI has come along in a spectacular fashion.

This is down to the use of neural networks. These networks, simulated in software, take information and process it through nodes called neurons which have a weighted interaction with other neurons. Crucially these weights ( or probability of transmitting a signal ) can be modified by the input data. Essentially an AI system consists of an input layer, several neuron like layers( can be dozens or more ) and an output layer. The neurons, or brain like cells, are simulated in computer software.

I was involved in using a neural network to try and develop water based corrosion preventives. We bought the network as a package and fed in the results of systematically changing the formulation. Then based on the output we hoped to be able to “tune” the formulation. It was a failure. The output seemed sometimes counter to what our prior knowledge told us. The system was effectively a “black box”; in other words we had no means of knowing why the result was obtained. Modern day thinking would be that we simply provided the network with a completely inadequate stock of information.

From the Economist supplement on AI it seems that the breakthrough idea is to develop a neural network and then train it on gigantic amounts of information. It is the internet which allows ready access to these huge amounts of information and low cost computing which enables the networks. For example the first success was based on image recognition. Vast numbers of portraits were scanned and the AI can sort out say images of men with moustaches. This can be achieved by asking the AI system to simply organise the images by their salient features. Alternatively the fine tuning of the network can be achieved by first picking out a small subset and then telling the AI when it’s right or wrong. A well tuned AI is better than a human.

While these AI can be hugely impressive it is also important not to think they are both powerful and versatile. So far AI seems to be directed at some particular task and a multi- purpose AI is probably decades away. Even so there has been some adverse comment. A few, including eminent scientists, have seen a risk that an AI could plan an even better AI and eventually outpace humanity. This is the stuff of science fiction and far away from present capabilities. A more immediate objection is that AI could displace people doing routine but skilled jobs. For example radiographers examining X-ray pictures for signs of disease could be supplanted by AI which would be better at the job. The other obvious advantage being that the AI would not suffer any distraction and could work 24 hours a day.

There is the usual fear that any type of automation would displace workers. However history tells us that new types of work better suited to human skills arises. Our economic life is an ever evolving dynamic system. Just to take an almost trivial example both my son and son-in-law work in IT in jobs which were simply unknown when I was young. The problem, if there indeed is one, will be the speed at which change may happen. It is a truism of modern life that simply training and then using that knowledge for a working life is no longer adequate.

I can readily see that despite years of training in my own young life it was still necessary to learn new things through my career. Increasingly we must see that education is about learning how to learn not about learning a particular subject. Education is also about providing a framework on which continued learning can hang.

It is easy to write about flexibility in working. It is not so easy in practice. Try telling an unemployed 50 year old who has done one thing all his working life there is a skills shortage. But there is a skills shortage and nationally we ignore this at our peril. I’m very pleased that even in our local primary school I see that learning is more attuned to the future. I’m afraid it is all too easy to wish the world would stop changing but change it will. I can’t see clearly what impact AI will have. It will be profound and may be faster than is comfortable.