Re-entry

Coming home after 2 two weeks away feels like a fairly abrupt re-entry into our everyday life. In the morning we breakfast , clear our cabin, wait to be called to collect our luggage then home by teatime. A complete change of lifestyle with just the journey to allow readjustment.  The minibus journey back from Southampton was miserable. Rained all the way, A34  blocked by accident so slow queue by alternative route. Our fellow passengers were in Dudley and we arrived just as the schools were turning out which made for mayhem with cars parked everywhere or slowly making their way back. Our driver then did a short fast stint on the M6 toll road and we had a fast journey from Dudley, much quicker than I expected.

We have been on a Saga cruise to the Canaries via Madeira on the way and Portugal on the return. The Portugal stop was by Opporto and we had a port wine bodega tour. We succumbed to buying some port to bring back. I hadn’t realised that so many types existed.

Saga specialise in older folks. I’m now used to all the restrictions of my 76 years. But I was surprised and quite pleased that I was relatively fit. There were many wheelchairs and wheeled walkers around. I reckon I probably ranked about a third of the way up from the least fit.  My big problem apart from lack of stamina is lack of balance. Despite the ship movement I managed OK. Clearly the captain is very aware of the ships motion and he stayed an extra day in Madeira to avoid a high swell. This did mean we missed one island but I for one wasn’t complaining.

It is customary on  cruise ships to provide some entertainment every night. I  mean the major nightly show not the live music at various venues about the ship. The singer I rather disliked feeling his performance was poor and his jokes weak was taken ill losing his voice through laryngitis. I regarded this as a blessing as we had two alternative shows. One was from the resident troupe ( three singers, 4 dancers ) which was in rehearsal for the future and the final one was a triumphant throwing in of everyone available. This included Graham Cole (  Tony Stamp from the Bill ) who proved to be a fine singer and amusing comic. This ended with the entertainments director singing and doing a fine job of engaging the audience.

The entertainments director ( JoBo ) used the rather good idea of seeking jokes from the audience ( written beforehand ) to be read out at her introduction to the show. My joke got a modest laugh ( a bear walks into a pub…) but it was the raunchy ones which went down best.

Lack of balance is one of the residual effects of stroke for me. Over the years I have adjusted a bit and I don’t fall over as much. I have to be careful of rapidly turning. I also need to be careful in restricted spaces as I need to maintain a wide stance. On board a moving ship I’m not at too much of a disadvantage. I’m used to holding on to hand rails. As the Captain kept reminding us, one hand for the ship and one hand for yourself. I found my walking stick no benefit around ship and I just used it ashore.

It is curious what an enclosed life a cruise ship maintains. With meals and activities there is not too much time except for excursions in port. I’m rather surprised to recall the only time I went on the main deck was for the compulsory evacuation drill. Having said that we did have one meal outdoors on the veranda deck and would have taken another except we couldn’t find a free table.

Talking of tables leads naturally onto food. Frankly cruise ships are an invitation to gluttony. As if three full meals a day were not enough there is the option of afternoon tea  and supper while drinks and cake is available all day. The food was good although far too pretentious for my simple tastes. I generally had a roast potato and salmon or chicken for both lunch and dinner. Their was a surprising lack of vegetables and what we had were strange and dressed up in some quite unnecessary way.

I teased about my shipboard joke. Here in full

A smartly dressed bear walks into a pub and in a plummy voice asks for a pint of best bitter. The barman is absolute amazed and just asks the first sum that comes into his head, £25. The bear looks slightly puzzled but pays up.
The next day the same thing occurs and the barman seeking to be consistent charges the same £25.
On the third day the bear again comes in. The barman seeking to start a conversation ventures “ We don’t get many bears in here”
The bear replies “I’m not surprised at these prices”

Recession

While it might seem inopportune to discuss recession all free economies undergo cycles of performance. The reason is perfectly obvious with a little thought. When things are going well incomes rise, spending rises and investment to meet that spending rises and there is a positive feedback loop. On the other hand if incomes fall, spending falls and investment falls and a negative feedback loop is established. The cycle changes direction as spending peaks and the negative loop starts.

This simple argument takes no account of imports and exports. This trade balance is affected by the economic cycle such that a growing economy imports more and vice versa if falling. In practice the trade balance is very much affected by currency levels. A strong ( high) currency generally causes more imports and again vice versa for a weak currency which tends to reduce imports and increase exports.

Generally since WW11 the cycle has operated against a background of overall growth so that a recession is growth below trend and boom time is above trend growth.

Economists talk a lot about productivity, ie, the ability of the same level of effort to produce more. Productivity is usually positive and is commonly thought to be a function of investment such that higher investment improves productivity. A big problem is that productivity growth has fallen recently and nobody is sure why.

The tools to reduce cyclic behaviour are fairly well known since the work of Keynes in the 1930’s. Essentially the counter cyclical behaviour is to maintain spending in a slowing economy. Keynes famously remarked it was worth paying people to dig holes and pay others to fill them in. In fact a big stabilising factor is the welfare system. If workers become unemployed in a downturn then unemployment pay enables them to retain at least some spending. Welfare isn’t just good for a the individual but helps stabilise a cyclic economy.

A larger factor in post war economic management has been interest rates. Essentially lowering interest rates makes investment cheaper helping to maintain it above the level to which  it might otherwise fall.

And it is this latter control mechanism which is a problem at the present. The recession of 2008-9 was severe. Rather than growth rates falling they turned very negative. Central banks responded by reducing interest rates from ( in the UK ) 5% to 0.25%. In principle interest rates can’t become negative otherwise if it costs to have money on deposit then you simply have cash which retains its nominal value. If you have followed the news then you will know that this is grossly oversimplified and small negative interest rates have occurred. To return to the main issue since the 2008-9 recession interest rates have not returned to former levels. In the UK rates are still below 1% and similarly for most nations. This means that if a  recession occurs,  as it is bound to, then interest rates cannot be reduced much if at all.

To try and get around this central banks have resorted to quantitative easing. This is effectively a sort of confidence trick to put more spending into the economy. The central bank declares it has money and it buys corporate bonds with that money. The folk who sell the bonds to the bank then spend that money elsewhere. The con trick works because by convention decently run countries can always raise the money by borrowing or taxation. I say decently run countries where people expect the debt to be repaid. In some countries like Zimbabwe or Venezuela this won’t work because it becomes an obvious sham. Quantitative easing is controversial and it is disputed what real effect it has on the economy.

There are even more outlandish ideas which might be used. One arousing some interest among economists is for “helicopter money”. The idea is that everyone is given money in the expectation they will spend it and keep the economy moving. It’s called helicopter money after the economist who said it would be worthwhile just showering money down from a helicopter.

To conclude- a recession sooner or later is inevitable. The conventional tool of lowering interest rates is unavailable because they are already low. Some unconventional thinking will be necessary. Are politicians up to the task?.

Lawyers are people who can write a ten thousand word document and call it a brief.

Auschwitz

A few years ago we went on a rail tour visiting Poland. I found Poland an interesting place which has a terrible history in the twentieth century. It became almost a cliché for our guide to point out memorials and say how many hundred are remembered who died during the various Russian and German occupations. At the start of WW11 Poland was invaded from the West by Germany and from the East by Russia. Later Poland was part of Russian occupied Eastern Europe. It is distressing to see how Poland is now governed by an illiberal party which although better than communist occupation is destroying the rule of law.

I was rather apprehensive about visiting Auschwitz and would have avoided it if I could easily have done so. However it was part of the tour itinerary so I went along. I need not have worried. It was a beautiful late summers day and the place was crowded. There were many children which was surprising until our guide explained that a visit is a normal part of the school curriculum.

I entered under the notorious “Arbeit macht frei” sign ( work builds freedom) sign over the gate. The site was previously a barracks and many of the buildings were quite attractive two storey brick. We passed through the reclamation area where prisoners  belongings were kept. We were allowed a few minutes to see the pitiful piles of artificial limbs and human hair after the prisoners were given shaved heads.  Then in single file slowly through dungeons where selected prisoners were incarcerated and tortured. A special cell has a memorial to a priest who volunteered to take the place of another prisoner. He was eventually killed.

We went then went actually through the gas chamber again in single file but the file was continuous and there was no time to linger. Soon it was time to take a short break and then on the coach for Birkenau. This was part of the concentration camp but situated a few miles away. Prisoners who were used as slave labour were separated and lived there. At the camp reception where railway lines ran into the camp victims were sorted where those good for a short period of slave labour were separated from those judged unable to be useful as slaves.

Birkenau was very much my image of a prisoner of war camp with long rows of huts surrounded by barbed wire fences and watch towers. Most of the wooden huts had been demolished with only their foundations remaining. Just a few were kept for exhibition. Conditions would have been almost indescribable cramped into packed bunks with the most primitive toilet facilities.

There is no truth in the myth that no birds sing at the camp. Even though it wasn’t as crowded as the death camp most birds would be scared away by the many people. However the further reaches, and the camp is huge, were relatively quiet.

In many ways the camps though oppressive were less dramatic than the area of Warsaw which was gutted in the Warsaw uprising. The Polish Home army knowing the Soviet forces were near rose up and tried to take Warsaw before the Russians arrived. The Soviet forces deliberately  stopped their advance and the Home army was killed almost to the last man and central Warsaw destroyed. Stalin and Russian communists didn’t want non Soviet military forces post war when they were determined to install a puppet regime. To partly cover their despicable actions the post war communist regime rebuilt the central area. There are memorials now to the Home army but most impressive is a whole museum is devoted to the uprising.

It was a source of pride to note that the British command realised what was happening and tried to resupply the Polish Home army from the air despite the long distance. It must be remembered that this was a guerrilla army completely lacking in heavy weapons and lacking ammunition for the few small arms they had. It was gratifying to see a RAF Halifax had pride of place in the museum. This was brought down while attempting a resupply mission.

We had a very personal account from our guide of life in communist Poland. She told us how excited they were by the visit by Polish Pope Jean-Paul. She was a student at the time and although advised not to attend the mass given by the Pope did so anyway. Because so many went to see the pope there were no reprisals.

Poland is country which, relieved of the communist yoke ,had been doing well but progress is now threatened by “populist” government. The EU is trying to prevent the slide back to a totalitarian state. As is only too typical much is made of the supposed threat of immigration. It is ironic that this succeeds in Poland while the leavers referendum campaign was partly against Polish immigrants to Britain