Myths

 

Myths and Conspiracies

I’m puzzled by the prevalence of myths which persist in the face of massive evidence against them. Flat earthers seem to totally disbelieve the evidence of their own eyes in photos of earth taken in the Apollo missions. I suppose they belong to school that thinks the lunar missions a hoax. These beliefs are arguably harmless but American democracy is threatened by the myths put forward about the 2020 election. Trump persists in saying the election was stolen and apparently many people believe him.

The list of bizarre beliefs extends far and wide, the QAnon conspiracy, Bigfoot, ghosts are just a few examples. These beliefs are apparently held in the face of massive evidence.

 WHY?

I have to say straightaway I don’t have an answer. I have been turning this over in my mind for years and the recent American situation has made it seem more urgent. All I can offer are some factors which I think may be part of an answer.

The first is the decline in religious belief. It is surely no co-incidence that many irrational beliefs are held with a religious fervour; in a sense the belief is a substitute. Psychologists observe that humans seem to have a need to believe, to have faith and are bereft without it. It is a though the human psyche has a “ God shaped hole”- if not filled by God then something else must be found.

Public figures have found a way to fame by articulating strongly and forcefully some extreme position. Trump is perhaps the premier example but there are plenty of others such as Bolsanaro in Brazil.  In the UK Farage is a clear example and I’m sure some would include Johnson. As politicians these are often discussed as populists but while they may articulate views held by many they may still be a popular minority. Trump has shown no tendency to broaden his position even where he has lacked majority support.

News media have long held unashamedly biased positions but while relatively objective reporting has declined highly biased media have flourished. I would cite Fox news in the US and the Daily Mail in the UK as examples but there are many, many others. The BBC is often held up as an example of bias free reporting. I find it may be bias free in the topics reported but highly skewed in the topics chosen for coverage. Supposed lack of bias is also shown by reporting the lie with equal prominence as the truth. There are reasonably truthful publications among whom I would cite the Economist. The big virtue of this is that it provides evidence for the reader to make their own view.

Realistic fiction has deliberately tried to blur the line between reality and fantasy. An example would be the X files TV show which was predicated on revealing supposed realties underlying reality. That these underlying realities were in fact fantasies wasn’t part of the story, In general fiction has become ever more apparently realistic so I feel there are people who genuinely cannot tell fact from fantasy. Our simulations are so good that they are difficult to tell apart from the real thing. I had a strong feeling of déjà vu about the video of Perseverance landing on Mars  just because I have seem such good simulations before. I feel sure that many lunar landing sceptics take their view ( probably indirectly ) from Capricorn One, a film about a lunar hoax story.

Reality has become more fantastic. A modern smartphone is a nearly magical device. It was Arthur C Clarke, a science fiction writer, who said any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. Much modern technology, particularly micro electronics , is totally beyond the understanding of most of us and thus indistinguishable from magic.

Confidence in the truthfulness of organisations and individuals has declined. Often there were good reasons in the past for dissimulation or even down right lies. An example of a “white” lie was the idea that Vitamin C helps night vision. Put about during WW11 to cover the development of airborne radar; even today when the story is long past there are plenty who swear by eating carrots. On the flip side some trusted people espouse some odd ideas with Trump as prime example.

The role of belief in medical affairs has long been known. The placebo effect is so strong that even such nonsense as Chinese medicine is widely accepted. The irony is that it may well work thanks to belief. Mind can rule over the body. A sort of bastard form of placebo effect seems to work with many in otherwise odd beliefs- I believe so it must be so.- mind over matter

The role of social media must not be underestimated. So many oddball believers find reinforcement by meeting those who agree on virtual media. There is glory in holding a minority belief. The feeling that as a believer you hold the truth and – haha the majority don’t. Being part of an in-group leads to social feeling and also to a certain smugness.

These are some ideas and I’m sure there are others. However myths are to be taken seriously. While say anti-vaxxers mainly harm themselves climate change deniers could destroy humanity.

P'tang yang kipperbang and Laziness

 

P’tang yang kipperbang

Is the title of a TV play by Jack Rosenthal. As Lenny Henry remarked it must be the strangest title ever. It is the poignant , bathetic and humorous account of a boy whose twin obsessions are cricket and to kiss a particular girl in his school class. Duckworth ( nick name Quack-Quack) thinks his opportunity comes in a school play but his nerve fails and he just shakes her hand. When she can’t understand why he confesses his adoration and she kisses him.

The title saying is just a group code among his fellow pupils and takes no significant part in the play except that they delight in flowery and obscure word play. A part of the humour is that his internal cricket voice is John Arlott talking about Duckworth’s exploits on the pitch. After the kiss he exceeds Len Hutton’s record innings of 364 in his imagination.

Although broadcast in the early 80’s the cricketer’s that Duckworth imagines are from an earlier era, more like the 50’s and 60’s. I derived special enjoyment as they were among my own boyhood heroes, such as Alec Bedser, Denis Compton and of course Len Hutton himself.

Jack Rosenthal was a major TV playwright from the fifties to the eighties dying in 2004 from cancer. He had a characteristic simple style in his plays with gentle humour about life’s foibles. His characters were often given nick names which were amusing in themselves. For example in “London’s Burning” a firefighter is nick named Charisma because he thought he had it but didn’t.

Internal voices were another common feature. In “Saturday afternoon and sweet FA” a football referee gets carried away at the end of the match scoring a goal. All the time he imagines the roar of the crowd.  In “Eskimo Day” he shines light on children leaving home to go to university with their feelings of excitement and fear coupled with their parent’s sadness as they leave home. The title likens this to Eskimo’s achieving adulthood..

Rosenthal turned his hand to many facets of the TV writers craft as in, among  other things, many episodes of “Coronation Street”.

During his life he was recognised by 3 BAFTA’s and a CBE.

His was a distinctive voice whose loss has left TV drama poorer.

Laziness

I may as well admit it straightaway; I’m lazy. Certainly through my school years I was mostly lazy with occasional ( very occasional) bursts of diligence. This continued through university and onto working for a research degree. The latter was offering big opportunities for laziness which all too often I couldn’t resist.

I well remember reading an article by an eminent philosopher entitled ” In defence of laziness “. The essence of the argument proposed was that laziness led to thinking about easier ways of doing tasks and that this fuelled innovation. While there is an element of truth in this I think there is far more to say. It was also no excuse for me.

I think that I reached something of a turning point in middle age. There is a mental trick to working hard and I think I began to exploit it. This trick is not to think of the work as a task but rather how it personally helps you, yourself, in some way. This may be just to advance your career or it may be to meet a personal goal. My wife tends to pooh-pooh this idea saying that as I grew older with greater management responsibilities I had greater choice in what I did. Also I could delegate less congenial tasks to others. Certainly freedom to work as I wished helped.

Again there is some truth in her view. I’ve always been one to break up tasks, to do a bit of one and then something on another before returning to the original task. From early on in my career I could organise work as I saw fit. The more autonomy I had the harder I tended to work. The difficulty was to make sure the work I chose was aligned with the organisation objectives. I had trouble with this at first.

To be considered fairly hard working was part of my self image. I would labour on sometimes just to be considered diligent. When I reached the stage of becoming a hard working self starter I also found there was personal value in identifying with the objectives of the group or company. The final ten years of my career I worked part time at a small company. I found satisfaction in feeling I made a measurable contribution to the success of that company. It is necessary to take ownership of the task in hand.

This general idea of personal targets is I’m sure behind most otherwise useless objectives. Climbing Everest or rowing across the Atlantic have no intrinsic worth. They are objectives which give personal satisfaction. I’m sure that while sometimes overtly  linked to charity it is the appeal to personal or psychic worth that is the attraction not the money raising..

I think the enduring appeal of something like the Duke of Edinburgh awards is linked to the appeal to a sense of adventure by participants.  However the objectives only work if the individual takes ownership of them. The eventual award is rather incidental although useful for young people to brandish as evidence of worth, Only one of our children chose this but her interest, taken up initially as part of the award, led to a hobby of lifelong interest in genealogy .Almost incidentally through helping her we became interested ourselves.

Eco disaster overblown

 

Eco-disaster?

It is right and proper the BBC are producing programmes emphasising the risk we are running of an ecological disaster. The major element is climate change but population and species loss also feature.. The major spokesman chosen is David Attenborough. Now he is a fine broadcaster who is widely respected. However there are two problems, firstly he does not understand population demographics and secondly he has the naturalist’s interest to preserve all species.

The population scare story is very common. It consists of extrapolating the recent increases in world population to some large ( and indeed scary ) level. Fortunately demography does not work like that.  In undeveloped countries people have large families. It is a sad fact that many children do not survive so parents tend to have many so they have some assurance some will live on to become adults. It is a sort of pension policy to have survivors for old age care. As countries become better off people have fewer children knowing they will probably all survive. Social care and old age pensions makes parents less reliant on their children in later life. This change to smaller families is known as the demographic transition.

The evidence appears to be that affluent societies tend to have fewer children than the replacement rate This replacement rate to allow for the childless is about 2.1 children per couple. Thus if couples have the modern norm of just 2 children the population will slowly decrease. However if is clear that given modern society women in fact have fewer children. Projections in places like France and Italy suggest many have on average far fewer than 2 but as is the case in the UK it is only those groups who are culturally still used to larger families ensure population stability. Most UK population growth comes from immigration.

Demographers expect global population to be flat or gently declining by the end of the century. However the Covid 19 pandemic has caused birth rates to dip

Countries such as Japan are undergoing population declines. It is a little surprising that the presently most populous country, China, is projected to decline. While decades of authoritarian state dictating one child only has a major impact the recent withdrawal of this policy suggests families will remain small. Even India is only just above replacement level of births with every indication that the steady fall in birth rates over years still has some way to go.

There is some discussion about whether this simply reflects women bearing children later in life. However it seems that for many women fulfilment in life means more than children. An important factor is that the demographic transition tends to lag a more affluent society. First modern medicine means higher child survival and it is only after this effect is understood that transition occurs. More recent evidence suggests the lag is reducing.

The effect of the transition is very apparent in the UK. In Victorian times large families were common. Even up until the 1920’s couples with 5 or more children were common. Nowadays it would be quite remarkable to find families of that size. It is not only that child mortality is much reduced but many cultural factors such as contraception, abortion and female emancipation play a part.

The main geographic area still to undergo the demographic transition is Africa. Large families are the norm but as modern medicine penetrates child survivability has improved. While African economies are growing they are still far away from mass affluence.

There is good evidence that overall biodiversity is good for preserving quality of life. One compelling reason is to preserve genetic diversity. Genomes or variants of species genomes will be very useful in breeding to withstand climate change.However this isn’t an unmitigated benefit. Closeness to animals increases the chance of new diseases ( such as Covid 19) transferring from animal to human. We should beware the naturalists wish to preserve all biodiversity uncritically. It is perhaps part of the wish to see all species preserved that will lead an Attenborough to declaim that some lesser black backed orang-otang be preserved. However it is sometimes far from clear what benefit is obtained by its preservation.

Some drives for preservation are really aesthetic or cultural such as the wish to preserve the panda. It often seems that the wish for biodiversity is based on a precautionary principle. We may not know its ecological niche so don’t disturb it. The panda is apparently not part of some food chain in which it is an important predator or prey. Its food is bamboo and it doesn’t appear to play a part in keeping it in check; rather it is the decreasing amount of bamboo which is driving down panda numbers. From the utilitarian viewpoint of life on earth it isn’t obvious any harm would come if the panda died out.

This needs to be approached with great caution. In many cases we just don’t know what contribution any particular species provides. All we are saying is that automatic retention of all existing species may not be justified.

In conclusion we can say that population increases though alarming will probably naturally correct themselves. This process is highly likely to produce a change in the proportion of different people in the population, fewer Russian and Japanese , more Nigerians. The doom laden accounts of species loss is not automatically a sign of impending disaster. Species have disappeared before and maintaining or increasing the number of species on earth is not automatically the good thing that some proponents argue.

It is appropriate to end with a strong caveat thar Friends of the Earth and Greenpeace are lobby groups and have their own internal arguments. Sad to say their lobbying doesn’t always help the battle  Their cries of doom should be critically examined. The kind of hair shirt anti technological society extremists envisage does tackling the real issues no favours.

Reality

  

I’ve been reading Richard Dawkins new book “The Magic of Reality”. Essentially his point is that reality is so splendid and indeed “magical” that there is no need for the fantasies that so many hold. I am puzzled that so many hold totally irrational ideas without any evidence other than  vehement supporters.

I’m struggling to explain to myself the behaviour of the American electorate in the recent presidential election. A huge number was prepared to vote for the worst president ever who holds completely irrational opinions. Despite his bigoted misogyny and racism apparently despite these insults many women and black Americans were prepared to support him. I’m relieved that a majority of the population voted to replace him. I fear that the damage Trump has done to democracy is very severe.

I really wonder if increasingly, and particularly in America, people don’t suffer from a disconnection with reality. Films and TV propagate false ideas of reality, sometimes as fiction, sometimes not that seem to lead people to believe that anything is possible. The idea then followed is the idea most strongly expressed. If Trump says the election is stolen without any evidence then apparently many believe him.

Take flat earth as an extreme example. Not only is there no evidence for this notion there is an overwhelming evidence against. One would think that things like the photo of the earth from space would be simple enough that even the most unsophisticated could see but some prefer to stick stubbornly to their outlandish idea.

Climate change is perhaps a case where the evidence is slightly less overwhelming. Climate change deniers are on a very slippery slope as evidence mounts that climate change is real. The predictions of heat waves, floods and other weather extremes are coming true. I have read that climate change deniers are influenced by their overall political views. That those of a more right wing view see climate change as some sort of leftish conspiracy while those on the left tend to accept the reality. As Al Gore put it climate change is an inconvenient truth. It is perhaps to be expected that those who want to see society as unchanging resent the changes which will be forced upon us. What is irrational is this strange idea that just by being opposed in some way stops climate change.

This feeling that opinions change reality is perhaps one of the most puzzling phenomena. It certainly seems true that some felt ( Trump as example ) that by denying Covid 19 was real in some way stopped it from being so. An enormous death toll gives the lie to this. One sees that increasingly people feel that by denying reality they in some way change it.

The anti -vax movement poses a particular challenge to society. The benefits of vaccination do not just accrue to the individual. If enough people in a population are vaccinated then the population as a whole is protected. This is called herd immunity. A simple way of thinking about this is that a disease can only propagate by infecting unprotected people. If a high enough proportion are protected then the disease cannot propagate and dies through lack of susceptible targets. Thus even if the individual is not protected they live in a population where the disease cannot spread and are thus protected. The proportion in the population who must be individually protected to achieve herd immunity varies depending on factors such as rate of infectiousness of the disease.

This poses an issue if the anti-vax proportion is lowish and herd immunity is achieved  then the unvaccinated individual gets protection anyway. However this becomes a problem if the anti-vax proportion is high enough to prevent herd immunity. At this point not only does the anti-vax individual become at risk but all those in society who for one reason or another, such as age, pregnancy etc cannot be protected by vaccination are also at risk.

This is not a theoretical issue. The proportion accepting measles vaccination is falling and herd immunity is decreasing. The prevalence of measles in society is increasing with dire consequences for the individual and costs to society in hospital expenses etc.

In the context of the Covid pandemic it is anti social not to accept vaccination. The individuals irrational choice inflicts damage to society. While vaccination for society as a whole should not be compulsory on the grounds of individual autonomy and liberty it can be an immoral choice.

There has been an attitude particularly in America that not wearing a mask is a right wing ie Republican thing to do. The consequence of this mass refusal which extends to other precautions is that the USA has the highest Covid rate, and death rate, of anywhere in the world.

The most extreme example of irrationality is the QAnon conspiracy which is totally daft yet believed by some including American politicians. It would be almost superfluous to describe this except to say it supposes Trump is battling a group of paedophiles. We must suspect that elements of his voters believe this despite it being not only daft but evidence free. It has been suggested that this was originally a computer game picked up and amplified by fanatics.

A fairly cursory browse on the internet will show many other conspiracy theories. The so called supernatural offers another area where fruit cakes flourish. It is to some degree puzzling while these flourish in evidence free zones. One can see that some people need the drama of an oddball theory, or it may fit their political position. As Dawkins says reality offers its own magic. While reality must prevail in the end this final result can be a long time 

Country Boy

  

After viewing again the “ Lark Rise to Candleford” series on catch up TV I realise how turn of the 20^th century farming was different. In every other way my country upbringing was different from the bucolic setting lovingly featured. For a start the sun rarely shone as it always seemed to do in Lark Rise.

I lived down a country lane in one half of a pair of semi’s. Apart from the nearby bungalow we were a half mile from the nearest houses. The semi detached house where I lived looked fairly modern but this belied its primitive services. The only mains supply was cold water ( replacing the original well ) but earth closets, paraffin lamps and coal fired range were the facilities. Next door was another boy, a bit younger, but by force of circumstance as the only children around we were big friends.

Outside the house our big entertainment was watching farm workers about their tasks. I was uninterested in birds and plants and very interested in all types of machinery. The main vehicles we saw were farm tractors. We would hang around and often be invited for a ride. This meant clinging precariously to the big mudguard by the single drivers seat. Health and safety would surely put a stop to this nowadays. The workers were usually known to us by sight and would certainly know our parents.

My neighbour, Johnny, excited my envy because his father was a tractor driver. Most usually he had an old Fordson but occasionally he would come home at lunch with a new Fordson Major. I thought this big blue machine was the pinnacle of power and a decent turn of speed.

I recall watching closely as a small wheat field was harvested. The outer margin was cut by scythe to provide enough room for a reaper/binder to enter. This tractor pulled machine cut the wheat and bound it into sheaves. These sheaves were then stacked by hand in “tents” of six to dry a bit before threshing out the grain. I vividly remember one of the workers arriving on a BSA Bantam motorcycle . I was proud that I could name all the component parts.

The tractor was the then new Ferguson; small grey and with a hydraulic hitch.. Older tractors would have a towbar with varying heights and the towed machinery were lifted into position, From our point of view the narrow mudguards of a Ferguson made clinging on more difficult. The best were the old Fordsons with big wide mudguards which made excellent perches.

Farm work was hard work. Watching a mature tree felled by axe the then two handled saw it was several hours hard labour. Tractors generally just pulled other machines, even the Fergusons hitching point only powered up and down. There was no hydraulic buck rakes and the like in those days

When the sheaves were stacked into stooks to dry they were an excellent playground. With sheaves set top to top you could crawl through the gap at the bottom. To a boyish imagination they fulfilled many roles.

I’ve said I took little interest in the wildlife around. I do however remember one sunny day lying on my back in a field and gazing up at a lark hovering and trilling away.

Most usually the sheaves after drying were loaded onto a trailer and moved away to the threshing machine. It was very much a red letter day when the threshing machine was moved to a field nearby. The thresher was large and cumbersome. In one case I remember the gate and posts had to be removed to let it enter. Once in position it was connected by a wide flat belt to a tractor power take off. This was a drum about a foot wide powered by the tractor engine. Sheaves were then brought to the thresher, binder twine cut and the wheat, stalk and, all lifted by pitchfork to the top of the thresher. This then passed through vibrating tines with grain falling to the bottom and then bailed off, and straw collected into bales and extruded from the thresher. Unlike the large round bales of today these would be rectangular and smaller a little over a metre long. These bales could be manhandled and loaded onto a trailer ( although the binder string cut your hands ).

Ploughing was the usual first step in soil preparation. This would often then be followed by a disc harrow followed by raking prior to the seed drill. No cultivation prior to planting ( direct drill sewing )was unknown in those days.

I think we were quite careful county users closing gates and keeping off mowing grass. Keeping to the edges of sown fields was simply a matter of self interest as they often so wet