Self driving cars

 

Self driving cars

There has been a lot of press talk about this predicting that many thousands of truck drivers will become redundant. Also recently UK government has announced plans to allow limited self driving on UK motorways.

In describing self driving the US Auto standards association recognises 5 levels ranging from Level 1 automatic lane keeping through to level 5 full self driving. No vehicle is presently authorised for routine use at level 5 although some development use is permitted.

There has been use of driver aids which permit a car driver to drive more safely. For example lane departure warnings. My ten year old car has adaptive cruise control which is tied to a crude heads up display warning of proximity to cars ahead and giving an indication of closing speed. The only automatic function is emergency braking to mitigate possible collision. This is all taking data from a forward facing radar.

The key automatic functions now found on most cars are anti lock braking ( usually denoted ABS after the German )and dynamic stability control. Anti lock braking is fairly self explanatory. It functions by releasing the brake pressure at the point of wheel skidding and reapplying it again. This cycle is repeated many times very quickly. Anti lock braking does slightly increase braking distance but the compensation is retention of vehicle control as a skidding car can much increase stopping distance.

Dynamic stability is the automatic selective application of brakes to help ensure the vehicle goes where the driver intends it to go without skidding. For example to limit the tendency of the car to understeer ( ie go straight on .unless more steering lock is applied ) the inner rear wheel is braked . Similarly other wheels are individually braked according to circumstance. This does not improve the cars cornering capability but ensures that driver control is retained. Since loss of control due to skidding is the fundamental cause of one third of all accidents this is a massive safety boost. Use of this technology is mandatory for all new cars. The technology comes under many names such as electronic stability control ( ESC )

Self driving vehicles were originally sponsored by DARPA ( The US Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency ) .  The trials in the Mojave desert eventually showed the technology was possible and commercial development began about 2010. The acknowledged leader in autonomous vehicles is Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet the parent of Google. Waymo has collaboration agreements with several major car companies including Nissan and Volvo

Waymo have tried building dedicated vehicles as Robo-taxis but seem to have settled for modifying some electric vehicles such as Chrysler minivans. Essentially these vehicles are equipped with cameras and LIDAR ( a form of radar using laser light ). LIDAR is claimed to be able to detect objects up to 300m distant. In addition short range radar detects closer objects. Waymo is operating at Level 4 which is autonomous on public roads with other users but in conditions of good climate, particularly visibility.

In addition to various test areas in the US Waymo operates a test commercial service in Phoenix, Arizona. Phoenix road system has been fully mapped into the cars computer. Residents can call up the car and be driven where they want in the city environs. There is  usually a safety driver although not always.

In addition to Waymo there is CRUISE, a General Motors autonomous driving company and another associated with Uber

The most different is Tesla the electric car company of which Elon Musk is chairman. They are taking a somewhat different approach. Tesla do not use LIDAR ( which is expensive ) or even radar but rely on a suite of cameras around the vehicle. For some time Tesla cars have been available with Autopilot as an option. Autopilot allows for automatic lane changes . This has been developed to a prototype full self driving system. This is currently in beta test which means it is available to a few Tesla owners for test and evaluation. The objective is an autonomous system which doesn’t require road pre mapping.

All these systems rely on artificial intelligence( AI ) as part of the computing. This simply means training the computer system to think like a human. Think of this like a network. It learns by allowing reinforcement of the paths leading to a correct solution. In its training phase the computer is presented with a picture. Lets say we are teaching the computer to differentiate between a cat and a dog. If the computer gives the right answer the network is reinforced, if wrong the pathway is  weakened. The decision is made by a human  whether the computer is right or wrong. By looking at many thousands of images the computer learns by reinforcement what is right and what is wrong. Correct training leads to the computer knowing the characteristics of a dog from a cat and makes the correct choice. On a massively larger scale this is what the driving computer does.

In Tesla practice for full self driving there are two computers side by side which have to agree on the decision. Training the computer is essential which means that many thousands of images must be presented and interpreted. It so happens that Tesla cars have always been fitted with cameras, initially to aid the driver, but this means that Tesla has millions of hours of real driving images for training. This is sometimes seen as a key benefit for Tesla relative to its competitors.. The importance is the occurrence of unusual situations. For example a tow truck might tow a broken down truck with its rear wheels suspended so the recovered vehicle is facing backwards. It is essential that this is not confused with a vehicle being driven  the wrong way on a divided carriageway.  Many other situations occur rarely in driving but it is essential that the AI is trained for all of them.

It seems clear that at present Tesla is ahead of the industry in testing self driving. Their objective is a system which will work on any road without any prior mapping and also one which is affordable. The existing charge is $10000 but this is for a more limited level 3 system. It looks as if the rate determining step will be regulation not technology.

Night Mail/Not Pygmalian likely

 

Night Mail

This highly acclaimed documentary film was made in 1936. Made for the postal service ( the GPO then ) it follows the progress of the mail train going north from London to Scotland overnight. It is available on the internet and well worth watching. The first part is a straight documentary of the sort we are now used to seeing although the style was brand new at the time. The second part is given over to a famous poem by W H Auden which was written specially for the documentary.

The viewer is shown the mobile sorters working in the special carriage. As the train speeds through the night it picks up mail at the trackside by a catching device without stopping.

The start of the poem begins as the train crosses the border to Scotland; spoken by John Grierson to a score by Benjamin Brittan, and over the pictures of the steam train speeding through the night.

This is the night mail crossing the border

Bringing the cheque and the postal order

Letters for the rich; letters for the poor

For the corner shop and the girl next door

Pulling up Beattock, a steady climb

The gradients against her but she’s on time

The fireman is busy piling on coal while the driver keeps a careful watch. Across the Cumbrian wastes the train shovels steam over her shoulder as it races onwards.

Then the Auden poem switches to a steady beat following the rhythm of the train.

Letters of thanks: letters from banks

Letters of joy from girl and boy

Receipted bills and invitations

And applications for situations

And timid lover’s declarations

And gossip, gossip from all the nations

This always reminds me of my introduction to the poem at school. I don’t remember the precise occasion but I imagine a late autumn afternoon in Room 8. Tall windows on one side looked out on to the Ashby Road and opposite the central quadrangle surrounded by a covered walk way. The teacher was “Flash” Ferriman. I never understood why he had the nickname “Flash” as he was anything but. He was a wise and humane teacher whose natural authority meant no discipline problems. His humour was to include in his examples of English usage the names of his pupils thus “Hall gazes abstractly out of the window”. My attention would snap back. He was sometimes driven to throwing chalk or even the blackboard rubber.

Very occasionally he would wear his battledress jacket with his navigator wings. Just occasionally he would impart life lessons as in the psychology of volunteering. “ All those who don’t volunteer take a step back”

Auden’s poem slows as the Night Mail pulls into Glasgow and muses on the recipients

But who shall wake soon and hope for letters

And none will hear the postman’s knock

Without a quickening of the heart

For who can bear to feel themselves forgot

Not Pygmalion likely

In mid 1914 the play Pygmalion premiered. Written by George Bernard Shaw it features a phonetics expert Henry Higgins taking a flower girl, Eliza Doolittle and teaching her to speak so that she can be passed off as a Duchess. The play highlights Shaw’s belief that manner of speech was important in class distinctions. A fervent socialist he was keen to show how superficial speech is. Nowadays the original play is mainly known for the musical adaption “ My Fair Lady”.

At the time Pygmalion was notorious because Eliza has the line “Not bloody likely”. Swearing on stage was unknown then and although bloody is considered mild today it aroused much comment at the time. Because it was thought to be contraction of a religious oath such as “God’s blood” it was held to by some be sacrilegious. Many more were scandalised by swearing on stage.

Gentle folk who wanted to swear indirectly would say “not Pygmalion likely” ; a phrase I remember in use even as late as 50’s.

Shaw has a good point that the English class system partly depends on how you speak. Partly a matter of vocabulary and partly a matter of accent. Nancy Mitford had a deal of fun mocking speech as U or non U. For example it is upper class to say lavatory, lower class to say toilet. When she wrote in the 50’s this may be so but toilet is now widely used and accepted. However the fact remains that speech is still a main class identifier today.

Regional accents are now well accepted and the standard southern English accent is no longer the necessity it once was. There is a hierarchy of accents with Scottish considered pleasant and to show integrity. My own faint “Brummie” is not viewed favourably.

Physics at a time of uncertainty

 

Physics at a time of uncertainty

I nearly entitled this post “The death of Susy” for reasons which will become apparent but I rejected it as out of keeping with the serious tenor of this contribution. Physics is the part of science that deals with the material world and of course a great deal is understood and certain. Physicists have long been interested in the fundamental building blocks of matter. Study of the atom has shown it to be made up of different parts. These parts were gradually fitted together during the latter part of the 20^th century. The generally accepted version of these parts is known as the Standard model.

The Large Hadron Collider ( LHC )  is a massive atom splitter occupying a 27 mile tunnel at the French/Swiss border. Early on in its career the LHC was instrumental in the discovery of the Higgs boson, a particle predicted 50 years ago by theoretical physicist Peter Higgs. This was highly satisfactory as it suggested the Standard model was very much along the right lines.

However a range of other particles was also predicted as larger, heavier versions of the variety of known particles. This was expected to explain the puzzle of dark matter and to connect with gravity. The Standard model explains three basic forces but doesn’t explain gravity, a vastly weaker force. These expected particles were called supersymmetric particles and the whole theory supersymmetry or Susy for short. No such particles were found which has led to much head scratching.

A great deal of the investigation of these phenomena is mathematical. No Susy meant also that doubt was cast on the mathematics of string theory. This latter posits that matter at its most fundamental level is made up of vibrating strings in a 10 or 11 dimensional universe. String theory also suggests that 6 or 7 of these dimensions are rolled up so small that they don’t affect the 4 dimensions of space and time we normally experience. Very weird!

This problem demands further investigation and several mathematical theories have been advanced. There are some anomalies which may give a way forward. In the past it has often been trying for an explanation of small anomalies from generally accepted theories which has resulted in major advances.

There is a more basic issue with looking at sub atomic particles. This simply put is that quantum theory which is such a good explanation of small things up to hundred of atoms doesn’t mix with the best explanation of large scale phenomena in relativity theory.

Quantum theory is strange. Essentially it says matter is both a particle and a wave at the same time. Mathematically the wave is described by a wave function which essentially gives the probability that a particle will be in a particular position at a particular time. For a chemist like me concerned with the electrons around an atom, often shown a bit like a miniature solar system this means that the electron is not at a fixed point but rather as a cloud around the nucleus. All we know is the probability it will be in a particular position. This uncertainty continues until something happens to fix its position ( to decohere in the jargon )

The infamous thought experiment often quoted is ascribed to Schrodinger of a cat in a box. Personally I don’t find it helpful but it is quoted in almost every effort at a simple explanation. The outside observer knows the quantum cat is both alive and dead. Opening the box decoheres the cat and a result is observed as either alive or dead

It might be protested that quantum theory can’t be right. However it passes every test we can construct and it’s application has led to many electronic gadgets we use every day. At present there is no resolution of the composition of dark matter or of relativity vs quantum mechanics.

China

 

China

There has been a massive change of attitude among the liberal democracies towards China in the past 5 years or so. In Britain Cameron and chancellor Osbourne saw China as a vast business opportunity while Johnson fears China’s economic strength and recognises its existential threat. From about the late eighties the West looked on indulgently as China grew at an amazing economic pace, Essentially China went from a poor and backward country to an economic powerhouse in about 30 years.

We can see more clearly now that China policy was hopelessly naïve.  China used Western technology remorselessly to move up the manufacturing chain from simple metal bashing to the most sophisticated goods. There was a belief that a wealthier country would gradually liberalise politically, recognise human rights and evolve a proper independent legal system. The opposite has happened. While foreign investment bringing the best technology was welcome there was little hesitation in using Western technology for underhand methods like cyber spying.

The tremendous pace of China’s economic growth was enabled by limiting treasured communist collectivist ideas and allowing the private sector to flourish. In so doing a sort of informal pact was made by the leadership that allowed economic freedoms but completely barred political ones. This understanding enabled mighty cyber companies like Alibaba and TenCent to grow. These now fully match, in some ways surpass, such as Facebook and Google.

The result of the tremendous economic growth is that Chinese citizens standard of living has been transformed. From being mostly very poor now people enjoy world class infrastructure and excellent education.. The result is that the natural pride in an ancient nation has been transformed into virulent nationalism.

China is a very authoritarian state. In exchange for relative economic freedom Chinese people have no political freedom. Communication is very tightly controlled such that the internet in China is almost totally separate from the rest of the world. Chinese people cannot access anything that the authorities block which includes a vast amount normally accessible. This internet control has even resulted in the description ”the great Chinese firewall”. It appears that China is rapidly becoming a police state with many of the attributes of the former East Germany with surveillance and arbitrary action. There is no law in any sense separate from authority.

Under President Xi Jinping this totalitarian swing has accelerated. Very roughly the Chinese attitude to the world can be subdivided as Nationalism 50%, Communism 40%, Xi Jinping philosophy 10%. This is being manifested as internal repression and external aggressiveness. The treatment of non Han Chinese minorities has been shown with the treatment of Uighurs. The Chinese government entered into a long term agreement with Britain before Hong Kong was returned in the late 90’s. Almost from the start political control was imposed and this has been followed more recently with severe security suppressing any political action, even of token protests, while eliminating any press freedom.

Externally China has extended its aggressive attitude. It has long claimed Taiwan and a vast area in the South China Sea. It has extended and fortified small islands in the South China Sea. There is no international recognition and Britain and others do occasionally make “freedom of passage” voyages through the South China Sea. They are trying to pressure governments with island claims in the South China sea by posting large numbers of fake “fishing vessels” as a deterrent.

The Chinese leadership sees their totalitarian model as desirable not just for themselves, not just for South East Asia but for the whole world. Their objective is nothing less that the subjugation of the liberal democracies who would be turned into satellites. This is a threat to be taken very seriously China is rapidly building a large military force with a high technological capability. Their aim is to become so overwhelmingly powerful that nobody, certainly not in South Asia, dare oppose them..

The only countervailing force is America. Unfortunately America while steadfast under President Biden may not be so if it repeats the disaster of Trump or a Trump clone. It is a tragedy of gigantic proportions that one of the two great political parties, the Republicans, has fallen completely under Trumpite control. This extends to the extent that Trump fantasies are indulged. America cannot be regarded as a reliable ally with this political split.

The Chinese threat is very serious. Unlike the Cold War with Russia the liberal democracies are faced with a determined foe with ability for long term planning and great economic and technological strength. It seems that unlike Russia in the Cold War the Chinese government enjoys general internal support. Of course this level of support cannot be tested and is a matter of difficult estimation The philosophy of government is attracting a good deal of admiration in the Third World.

The very freedom enjoyed in the West has allowed companies to invest on a large scale in China. This has enabled China to invest heavily overseas in pursuit of their long term political ambitions. Some recent arbitrary decisions may give the less naïve investors pause for thought

While a shooting war is unlikely in the short term China will continue its aggressiveness and will exploit any weakness.

Ironically for all its massive 1.6bn population the main long term internal challenge is demographic. After the Mao imposed “one child” policy alarm has been growing among Chinese leaders about the long term fall in China’s population. The policy ( only possible in a totalitarian regime) has been relaxed twice recently to permit now 3 children. It appears that young people in China are following the world wide trend in that increasing prosperity is reducing family size. The situation is made worse by the Chinese cultural propensity to prefer boys. During the one child policy the ratio of boys to girls increased The result is that there is expected to be a surplus of males unable to find partners and hence reproduce.