Roundup 2021

 

Roundup 2021

It is the fashion for all sorts to pass opinion on the past year and the coming one. I daresay my view is idiosyncratic but here it is.

Obviously from a health perspective it has been another Covid year. Vaccines raised our hopes and Omicron has dashed them. Still we can hope the present peak will pass quickly and than vaccines prove as good as we hope.

My general feeing is fairly angry; perhaps anger is too strong and associated with people I detest, but I am very irritated.

I’m irritated but unsurprised that the Brexit issues are catching up with us. It was always going to be a slowly evolving economic penalty. This has largely been hidden from public consciousness by the Covid pandemic. What is more surprising is that the leavers are still fighting the battle. Led by Boris Johnson the dual push is to insult the Europeans as much as possible while denying there are any Brexit penalties. My impression is leavers are whistling to keep their spirits up.

The promised trade deals look ever more marginal. Boris by appearing to want to renege on the Ireland deal has ensured that there is no chance of a deal on trade with the USA whose President cares about Ireland. Cosying up to Trump didn’t do him or us any favours.

The world in general has become a more depressing place. The threat from China get’s worse every day while Putin’s Russia is becoming more aggressive For those like me who would hope to see a more liberal rational world the even bigger danger is that the big liberal democracies are falling prey to irrationality. The spectacle of 99 MP’s voting against a simple public health measure was dispiriting. Even worse was the extreme rhetoric used by some of them. To pretend the temporary measures were a step to a fascist state was so stupid as to be laughable. Less amusing is my suspicion that these are some of the very people who would happily support truly fascist measures.

More dangerous is the American situation. Trump persists in the lie that his election loss was fraudulent. Despite all the evidence that he is unhinged it appears that the Republican Party is in his thrall. Their saner members are being squeezed out.

It is better news that the Labour party is moving away from the madness and anti semitism of the Corbyn years. The worrying part is that he still enjoys some support from a segment which I suspect will cause future trouble.

The better news was that liberal causes did advance. The problem is that the “woke” element look to be exaggerating the advances and thereby putting them at risk. This advance isn’t everywhere as the American anti abortion lobby is slowly imposing its opinions on US society.

On the technology front there were some good benefits. The much ballyhooed 5G internet finally arrived for early adopters. The famous “internet of things” still seems as far away as ever. It was good news that the incredibly expensive James Webb telescope launched in Christmas Day. Even so a lot has to go right before it becomes fully functional. One name, that of Elon Musk, was associated with some visionary technology through Space X, Neuralink, and Hyperloop. Through the astonishing, and very welcome, success of Tesla he has become the world’s richest man.  Despite much obstructionism and a lot of nay saying he is doing a lot to advance humanity.

The success of vaccines owes much to progress in biosciences. These look to continue at  an even faster rate.

 I was mildly disappointed by COP26 the international climate conference. However I detect a definite shift in opinion. In view of the floods, fires and other extreme climate events the deniers are on a back foot. While some are just impervious to evidence I hope some will see evidence that it is not just a prediction for the future but is happening now.

In the context of energy production wind is now firmly established as a low cost method of electricity generation. This is also true of solar in sunnier climes. Welcome attention is now turning to other carbon sources. No good answer on space heating is forthcoming yet despite political bleating about heat pumps; fine for new houses but retrofitting doesn’t look practical at any reasonable cost. There are suggestions that a hydrogen economy might be suitable.

One fact is that a truly massive investment will be needed for the post carbon economy. There are positive signs that private investment is beginning to see a profitable end point and putting investment in place. On the opposite side there are also signs that fear of stranded assets is stopping finance of new coalfired power stations. The world faces a difficult problem of synchronising the run down of carbon with the ramp up of replacements. Hysterical voices calling for an end to oil and gas investment could lead to even worse energy crunches than the one we are experiencing.

Speaking of hysterical voices the eco terrorists of Insulate Britain have done a lot to antagonise sensible society. A  major  own goal which will set back sensible measures to combat climate change. The costly and ineffective roll out of smart meters shows how easy it is for wrong headed pressure groups to impose costly measures. The subject of cost is of major importance. It appears that a lot of quite sensible measures will require upfront costs before the eventual benefit emerges. We can expect to see plenty of rabble rousers decrying the costs; it is necessary to prepare now for public relations giving the facts.

It seems to me that society is very much in muddling through mode. I hope we are seeing two steps forward for one back; I fear it may be more like one forward, one back.

reusable rockets

 Reusable rockets

Almost all rockets used to date are non reusable. A typical satellite launch would put into orbit only perhaps 2% of the weight of the launcher. About 88% of the weight will be fuel but the launcher about 10% of the total is expendable often falling into the sea and sinking without trace, As Elon Musk( leader of Space X ) puts it “supposing you flew a jumbo jet across the Atlantic, threw it away and built another to fly back”

Put this way it seems obvious but the difficulty is that launching to space from earth requires prodigious amounts of energy to over come the gravitational pull. This is so difficult that virtually all rockets employ a staged configuration. In this the whole is lifted by the first stage which then falls away leaving a lighter second to continue on its way. Every ounce in weight carried to orbit unnecessarily is an ounce less payload.

Early launchers were very inefficient placing not much over 1% of launch weight into orbit. Expendable rockets have gradually improved so that Saturn V ( the Apollo moon mission ) achieved 4.1% to orbit

To reuse a rocket it has to return to earth landing safely and this requires fuel to deaccelerate. It also requires control equipment to guide to a landing. This weight effectively reduces the payload capacity.

The only practical reusable system today is the Falcon 9 by Space X. This is two stage rocket where the first stage carries enough extra fuel to land back after stage separation. The control is incredibly precise. Because the rocket cannot hover it must land back precisely as the rocket engine shuts off. This manoeuvre is known as a “hoverslam”.
The Falcon 9 has large landing legs which flip out just a right time before landing. These legs also pose a weight penalty.

The Falcon 9 first stage is recovered but not the second. The fairing around the payload is recovered by the expedient of parachuting into the sea where it floats. Refurbishment is necessary but other recovery methods using big catcher nets proved unsuitable being both expensive and prone to failure.

This reusable technology enables Space X to offer launches much more cheaply than competitors. The difference is so large that competitors are  designing new reusable rockets. Space X themselves for the next generation of large rockets are designing so they can hover. This somewhat simplifies landing control but increases the fuel weight penalty. The hovering rocket will not have the weight penalty of landing legs but is designed to be caught in the hover by a ground tower.

This is new technology largely pioneered by Space X but also learning from the past problems. The most ambitious effort at reusability was the Space Shuttle. This was designed to glide to landing so like an unpowered aeroplane. At launch the shuttle was also propelled by 2 large solid fuel boosters and both were attached to a massive fuel tank providing the fuel for the shuttle engines. The solid fuel boosters were designed to be detached once exhausted and fall into the sea ready for reuse. This proved to be a problem as refurbishment was lengthy and expensive.

A bigger problem were the heat resistant tiles protecting the shuttle from the fierce heat of re-entry into the atmosphere. These tiles had be replaced after every mission, every one was different and manual replacement was expensive and time consuming. As a result the shuttle program was considered too expensive overall and ended. Space X are seeking to solve the re-entry problem by using standardised tiles robotically placed as far as possible. The Space X rocket is in trials and it is yet to be seen if their approach will be successful.

It is clear that reusability is key to Rocketry success and all major companies are designing for future reusability. The sacrifice in terms of payload is outweighed by the cost benefit.

Space X are developing the largest rocket ever built and designed very much with reusability  in mind- in fact they are aiming for fast turn- around times of hours instead of current days or weeks. Although the upper stage has briefly flown to a low altitude the whole 2 stages are assembled and undergoing ground testing but have not yet flown. The future intention is for the two parts to be caught by the launch tower. The first test flight would be to orbit speed and then both stages crash  land in the sea

The richest man in the world

 The richest man in the world

I find it irritating that the richest man today ( late 2021 ) is so misunderstood. That man is Elon Musk. His vast fortune largely derives from his position as owner of about 20% of Tesla, the car manufacturer. While he was wealthy before starting Tesla his vast wealth today stems from building up that company. Arguably investors overvalue Tesla but that is another story.

The story of Tesla to date is interesting because it says a lot about 21^st century life in the liberal democracies. Musk was a South African who went to university in Canada and then went to IT in California. He set up a software company which morphed into PayPal. After selling his stake he was left a wealthy man in his early life. Rather than sitting back he looked at society and with both a science and business background he determined that certain objectives were necessary for society. One important objective was to minimise global warming and that carbon free cars were a component of this. This was taking place in the very early years of this century.

One early decision was that automotive batteries were too big, heavy and expensive. Musk saw that small lithium ion batteries used in electronic gadgets like smartphones were cheaper because made in large numbers. He thus based his car on batteries made up of many hundreds of small batteries; still heavy but less expensive. He also saw that carbon free performance alone was not enough to attract buyers. Accordingly the first Tesla was a sports car built around an exiting chassis which exploited the big advantage of electric cars. This is that electric motors develop maximum power ( actually torque ) while the motor is a zero revs. This gives an electric car blistering acceleration.

Having made a modest success Tesla then stayed way upmarket making very sophisticated but also very expensive saloon and estate car. One feature of these cars was that the controlling computer software could be updated wirelessly. Effectively the cars could modified after years of usage by a wireless signal. Many details were also developed such as electric motors which were better than the competition.

Having established a position Tesla then used their expertise to launch a more affordable car. These were still expensive but say BMW prices rather than Rolls-Royce. The initial saloon, the Model 3, has been wildly successful in large part because it is an excellent car outperforming internal combustion cars in its class.

In the transition to non fossil fuel, non carbon cars the only possibilities which have emerged are hydrogen, probably via a fuel cell, and batteries. Elon Musk using his initial wealth, his engineering creativity and entrepreneurial skills has established with Tesla a growing presence among a rather sceptical car buying market..

It is shocking that this achievement is not widely recognised. In particular US president Joe Biden has propagated the lie that General Motors is leading the electrical revolution. Frankly it is puzzling that Biden is either deliberately telling this story or he is lamentably ignorant. The probability is that he is knowingly telling a piece of “fake news” worthy of Trump at his worst. One can only speculate on his reasons which might be that Tesla has a Gigafactory in China or that General Motors has a unionised workforce and Tesla does not. In any event Musk must be credited with a major role in bringing forward the switch to electric cars.

Tesla is more than an automotive company. It is actively involved in solar power for domestic use. This has been tied in with an integrated electric system storing solar electricity in batteries. Perhaps the most inventive idea is to move directly to solar roof tiles so that the apparently normal roof becomes a large solar collector. This is very much in accordance with Musk’s drive for renewable energy. One issue with renewable energy by wind or solar power is its intermittent nature. Tesla are pioneering grid scale batteries using large collections of individual batteries. Such was Musk’s confidence in Tesla technology that he gave a money back guarantee to the first purchaser.

Tesla is also possibly the most advanced in self driving vehicles. Based on Musk’s determination that this technology should be inexpensive and widely available Tesla are avoiding exotic lidar sensors used by others  but instead computer aided cameras. Tesla is using an artificial intelligence system which is in test by ordinary motorists.

Musk who is clearly a gifted engineer, scientist and entrepreneur has put his wealth to use in several other ways. Firstly in offering a$100m prize for carbon capture ideas. Secondly for supporting the hyperloop underground train idea. Thirdly for setting up and financing Neuralink , a research organisation looking at brain function.

His most notable venture has been Space X. Entirely a privately owned business Musk pioneered several important developments. The most notable is a move towards reusability where the first stage of the Falcon 9 rocket is recovered. This recovery is by powered landing, a feat no one else has achieved. Musk has financed a company now said to worth a $100 billion,; but far more than financed he has actively participated in the great success of Space X. A particular idea is to provide worldwide internet by satellite transmission rather than towers. Again an early version is on test by normal members of the public  The brand name is Starlink. This is not a totally new idea but Space X is making it a reality. One of Musk’s objectives is to turn humankind into a multi planetary species. Musk feels humankind must spread its risks against the threat of some catastrophe enveloping its single planet. To this end Space X has in development a rocket which can travel to Mars.

To draw this together Elon Musk is a man who is using his wealth not on super yachts or other luxuries but along with his other talents to turn futuristic technology into reality in a way which is beneficial to society  He is in some ways a controversial figure. Partly many are envious of his abilities and position and thus  find reasons to criticise. It is sad that while Musk is the Thomas  Edison of the 21^st century the US President ignores him

Authoritarianism

 

Authoritarianism

It is depressing how many regimes in the world are authoritarian to some degree. If we see the correct purpose of government is to administer those areas of society which must be collective such as defence and otherwise to allow the individual the maximum possible choice in life then this the absolute opposite..

I’m not going to discus and analyse such blatantly authoritarian regimes as Russia and China. Particularly in China’s case they glory in suppressing individuality and their state philosophy is extremely dangerous. The governing philosophy in China needs a separate post.

More concerning is the spread of authoritarianism in supposedly free and democratic societies. It is interesting that democracy is touted universally even by societies which don’t seem to have the faintest idea what it means. The really sick example was somewhere like the former East Germany which called itself a “democratic republic” while practicing the antithesis.

Less it should be thought that the problem is exaggerated it is as well to realise that while it is very easy to slip into authoritarianism it is very hard to reverse. In fact there is almost a standard playbook in which an authoritarian regime takes power which is only torn from it by revolution. As examples take Cuba and Venezuela. Their regimes pauperised the country and limited freedom but survived; in the case of Cuba for well over 50 years. Another example is Iran where an irreversible theocracy has become entrenched.

The old idea that military coup’s are the usual method of installing authoritarian regimes as for example in Myanmar is outmoded. The modern day dictator is usually a bit more subtle. After getting power in some way, sometimes by election, subsequent elections are fixed by such methods as closing free press, controlling TV,  sham trials of rivals. A handy way of disguising reality is to invent imaginary hostile opponents and vociferously denounce them while pretending that rigid rule is necessary to defeat these opponents. A common choice of imaginary opponent is America although some regimes are much more subtle. The Hungarian regime demonises George Soros.

Defence against authoritarian rule depends on far more than democracy. It depends on strong and devolved institutions with none more important than the rule of law. One common feature of despotic rule is to manipulate the legal system and use it against opponents. It is appalling that Trump attempted to manipulate the US legal system. Trump appointees can hardly be trusted to be fair and impartial. He has been woefully successful in getting sympathisers onto the Supreme Court. On of the problems with democracy is that the Republican party, one of the two major US political parties, has now a history of gerrymandering, voter suppression and hosting wild conspiracy theories. The Trump election was also heavily influenced by systematic Russian interference. Although this all is problematic it is on the fringe of authoritarianism.

A depressing number of third world countries are falling for authoritarian government. The military coup in Myanmar is an almost classic example of an army takeover. Military takeovers have become less common partly because pre existing governments have become more wary of army power. Generally authoritarian regimes need to have support of the army.

A more common route is for authoritarian governments to gain power by pseudo democratic means and then manipulate the society so that they retain that power. An example is Guatemala.

Before we become too complacent in the UK we have to realise that the Boris Johnson government has shown distinct authoritarian tendencies. Their attempt to prevent parliamentary discussion by closing parliament when it suited was only prevented by legal action. They are showing worrying signs of attempting media control by hobbling the BBC and the deliberate exclusion of anyone who doesn’t agree with a pro Boris agenda is beyond normal practice. Fortunately the UK not only has strong civil institutions but also a group of aggressively libertarian MP’s within the Tory party.

The list of countries which have escaped authoritarian rule is depressingly short. Pakistan has emerged from military dictatorship but is hardly a fully functioning democracy. It is depressing that India has been moving in the opposite direction under the dictatorial Modi government which is fermenting communal discord as a deliberate ploy.

Authoritarian government has downsides quite apart and in addition to suppressing individual liberty. They usually make their citizens poorer, the striking exception is China. They are usually corrupt and despotic rulers all too often are kleptomaniacs. The almost joke example was the Marcos government in the Philippines where Imelda Marcos had many hundreds of shoes. Even in mature democracies all too often political leaders seek to feather their nests.

Counters to authoritarian government include a free press and free journalistic TV, strong non governmental organisations and most of all scrutiny and protest by citizens. The great hope vested in social media has not been shown in practice where misinformation is rife. It was said some long time ago that the price of freedom is eternal vigilance. All citizens everywhere need to recognise the proper boundaries of state control and be ready to oppose any attempt to step beyond those boundaries.

This post discusses state authoritarianism; some organizations also actively seek to counter liberty- it is a sad reality that the US Republican Party is such today.