Backwards and forwards

This is the time of year to look backwards at 2016 and forwards to 2017. I don’t think there is any time in my life when I have looked at the political world with more foreboding. 2016 was a terrible year for the liberal, free trading thinker. The UK referendum with the narrow decision to leave the EU will be a disaster but the US election could even worse.

It is bitterly ironic that Trump made dark comments about a rigged election when it turned out to be blatantly rigged for him. He is the Moscow candidate and the hacking of Democratic party emails was clearly intended to damage the Clinton campaign. Much more blatant was the FBI intervention. Firstly the Republican head reopened the damaging email investigation only to close it for lack of evidence on the eve of poll when the damage had been done. Trump is simply not a legitimate President- just remember Clinton won the popular vote. Becoming Putin’s toady won’t help.

Not only is Trump a thoroughly obnoxious individual he is set to do a lot of harm through his misconceived policies. This is not my greatest worry as he is thin skinned and irresponsible- just the sort of person to start throwing atomic weapons about if he feels rattled.

Alongside this alarming possibility the UK referendum is a less serious concern. My main worry is economic although other effects are also overwhelmingly negative. Some of the concerns can already be seen. The buoyant economy in the second half of the year is down to consumer spending. People know prices will increase markedly so they are buying now. Despite the favourable exchange rate for exporters UK exports have not risen. So much for finding other markets.

There is also favourable economic momentum. The Cameron led government was doing a decent job. The UK economy reminds me very much of a cartoon character running off a cliff- suspended for a while before its fall. One thing the leavers have forgotten is that Brexit hasn’t happened yet. Having said that the insouciance has been very surprising. Foreign exchange dealers who are unsentimental have seen the pound fall a lot but apart from that confidence( or maybe complacency ) has been high.

I do detect some signs of second thoughts. The result of the Richmond by election must have been an enormous shock to southern Tories. The Lib Dems focused on the EU and ,standing against a supposedly strong candidate who thought he had a vote winner in opposing Heathrow expansion, won decisively. This must give Tory tacticians pause for thought. Outside southern England the picture is more mixed. UKIP’s racism could be a big threat in the north- that is if UKIP doesn’t implode which seems a definite possibility..

The referendum was dominated by Leavers post truths ( lies in bald terms ) We have already seen the collapse of some while others are being quietly forgotten ( remember the 14m Turkish immigrant myth). The Theresa May government increasingly looks to be uncertain. Although David Davies has ingratiated himself with some in industry I don’t trust him or Fox or Johnson. It is as obvious now as it always has been that single market access demands accepting EU immigration. I see a situation where Messrs Davis, Fox and Johnson throw up their hands and say the access to the single market is impossible because they try to impose demands unacceptable to other EU members.

I notice that there are non parliamentary forces regrouping. The parliamentary situation appears that the Tories are split, Labour is lukewarm under a terrible leader while UKIP make anti EU their reason for existence. The SNP bang on about wanting the best for Scotland while the only unambiguously pro EU grouping are the Lib Dems.

Gradually mobilising on social media are various groups trying to reassert some degree of rationality to the whole debate. They have driven me to do something I have never done before in attaching my name to petitions and donating money.

The leavers claque ( Daily Mail, Express and the like ) must be hoping that as the dire consequences of leaving emerge that people will have forgotten the reason. If not there will be an immense backlash. Most leavers believed the fairy stories that their wealth would not be harmed. Finding that was just another post truth lie could easily rip the UK apart.