Young performers

Like many people in my position and at my time of life, I’m ridiculously proud of my grandchildren. It is fascinating to see them growing and developing their own characters and talents.  It isn’t that often we get a reasonably convenient chance to see them out of our normal family context. However an opportunity arose during our recent Whitby visit to see both Ellen and Alex on stage.

Ellen was with her school class at a theatre workshop at the Steven Joseph theatre in Scarborough. Their day was to devise a play in the morning with a theatre facilitator and then perform it in the afternoon. On Ellen’s day there were 4 schools separately doing playlets. We went by the regular bus route Teeside to Scarborough which calls at Whitby. I hoped to enjoy looking at the passing scenery but on a cold wet day the windows misted up and the view was very limited.

Lindsey, Ellen’s mum, caught the bus at Fylingthorpe en route and could sit by us. The theatre is right by the bus terminus which was a relief in pouring rain. As one would expect from 8-9 year olds the playlets were very elementary. Ellen’s play was entitled Family Misfortunes. Briefly it told of a family who  win a holiday to Ibiza and everything on the journey goes wrong culminating in the plane being landed by a novice pilot from among the passengers. Ellen spoke up clearly in one of the linking passages and then was a passenger on the flight. The playlet ended with the winner winning another holiday but screws up the. notice saying “never again”.

The bravest playlet was by a special school loosely based on the “Very Hungry Caterpillar”. Led out by a wheelchair youngster the “caterpillar”  first munchies odd foods ( like pizza ) and then transforms into a butterfly. This was signalled by the girls running around waving fabric wings.

We had our own mini saga on our return journey. We just missed one bus, the next broke down en route so we waited nearly 2 hours. Fortunately the station café is right by the terminus and provided a warm, sheltered spot as we waited

Alex’s performance was totally different. A  series of young people’s acts for the Whitby Arts festival culminated in a gala concert at Whitby Pavilion. Alex had played in a trumpet duet earlier in the series and they had been asked to play again at the gala concert. This coincided with the most atrocious weather with the “mini beast from the East” producing high winds and snow. The Pavilion isn’t far from our flat but we struggled and inevitably some performers didn’t make the journey. Alex and his friend Daniel played “Those magnificent men on their flying machines “ with great aplomb.

The undoubted star turn was two little girls of 8 or so reciting a poem where one is a dog and the other its walker. Needless to say the dog sees things very differently to the walker. The girl reciting the dogs part sat on the floor and amusingly the dog and walker completely misunderstood one another.

The weather really was atrocious and Martin and family stayed the night. Although we are nominally a 4 person flat for rental we have a fold out sofabed in the main bedroom. Strangely Ellen seems quite happy sleeping on the floor and in the past has abandoned the bed.

We are awaiting the results of Alex’s grade 4 exam in the trumpet which he took recently.  I was very proud of both of them. I couldn’t help but reflect that neither opportunity occurred when I was young although as I’m hopelessly unmusical perhaps that was just as well. I remember being tested by the music teacher in my second senior school year. He pronounced me tone deaf but kindly said he was sure I had other qualities.

Annette is slightly musical in that she can play piano but our own children didn’t show any interest or ability.

PS Alex not only passed his Grade 4 but achieved a “distinction”

Fake news

I’ve been cudgelling my brain over the last few weeks how to tell fake news from real news. The conclusion I have reached is that there is NO infallible way of separating fake from real. What I think we can do is find some things which are indicative, not infallible, but giving us a fair idea. Fake news is increasing and if we are not to be misled we need to worry much more about the quality of news we digest.

The first thing is to ask does the news come from a reputable source. I’ve written on this before so I won’t repeat myself. What I would add is that two or more trustworthy  independent sources much enhances the credibility of the news.

When looking at the news item you want to see if it fits with what you already know. For example Russian internet interference with democratic elections is already well known. Therefore news of a Russian troll factory fits well with what is known. However news of a British troll factory would be a major surprise and would not fit with anything we already know. Therefore we should be very suspicious that this news wasn’t real.

We should ask ourselves who benefits from fakery. Sometimes this is fairly obvious but sometimes the benefit implies some global conspiracy  without any real evidence. Climate change deniers  not only ignore the evidence but somehow suppose there is a malevolent interest in a change in society.

We should look for evidence which supports the news story. A blank statement unsupported by any evidence is suspicious. However the supporting evidence bears close examination.

For example any complex story, often some sort of conspiracy theory, can be tested using Occam’s Razor. This is a tool from  philosophy attributed to British Franciscan Friar, William of Ockham which says the simplest explanation is the best, in this context more likely to be true. This isn’t an absolute test but it is a general guide. In science it often means the simplest theory is the most easily tested and therefore the most easily found to be false. It is a usual part of conspiracy theories that they are often so complex in attempting to cover every eventuality that they can never be found to be false by any simple test.

Another item of evidence which needs to be viewed with suspicion is the use of statistics. We have heard of “Lies, Damned lies and statistics” or put another way that figures can’t lie but liars can figure. Presentation of data can be falsely argued by the simple expedient of choosing favourable periods for a time series or by quashing an axis so much that random movements appear real. A particular danger lies in analysis of statistics and never more so than in tests of significance. I count myself as a professional scientist and I was very wary of calculating significance. Even good mathematicians ( of whom I’m not one ) argue about correct estimates. In looking at the use of statistics simplicity is best.

It is human nature to string facts into a story. We naturally tend to understand a narrative and tend to manufacture one if isn’t there. Politicians in particular are fond of stringing isolated facts into a story.  Sometimes facts are random and any narrative is false.

Look for weasel words in statements. The referendum statement that we pay £350 million a week to the EU was a lie because it wasn’t complete, ignoring the £160m plus returned by the EU. It looked simple but it wasn’t. It could have been presented as our EU bill is  £350m. Still misleading but weaselled out of by ignoring the reverse payment. It was easy to say we could pay that extra £350m to the NHS. That particular slogan didn’t last 24hours after the result before it was clarified to “could but probably won’t because we can’t”.

Sometimes specialist knowledge helps. With a scientific background it is possible to see that some facts are highly unlikely because they conflict with well established physical laws. A useful adage to bear in mind is that “ extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence”. So someone claiming fairies at the bottom of their garden would need far more than photographs. Incidentally did you know that photos of fairies were produced early in the 20^th century and convinced the gullible before shown to be fakes.

This is not to say science is infallible. Deliberate fakery is rare but individuals can be deluded. For example cold fusion was sincerely proposed  but only falsified when it could not be reproduced.

In the end blind faith can be impossible to overcome. I know someone who thinks the moon landings were a fake. She ignores any evidence to the contrary. It is baffling how this arose ( although the fictional film suggesting a conspiracy probably helped ). I struggle to understand how Flat Earthers exist now the globe has been photographed from space. I’m sure they would say photographs can be easily manipulated..

Finally remember just because we cannot explain a phenomena doesn’t mean a rational explanation isn’t possible. Existing knowledge isn’t complete. However look at the evidence. For example Bigfoot has been thoroughly examined and evidence isn’t there while highly credible alternatives exist.

Motorcycles

I originally thought about this post after reading the blurb on an episode of “Timeshift” This talked about the thriving UK motorcycle industry with a diversity of brands. In fact when I watched the TV programme it is more about the 1960’s and the café racers. This isn’t at all my interest so I’m going back much earlier to the late 40’s and 50’s.

I was interested in motorcycles because our family owned one. These were motorcycle combinations ie, a motorbike and sidecar. A combination was ideal for a family of three, rider, pillion and sidecar passenger. Generally sidecars were built for one person although double adult sidecars also existed but were uncommon.

Motorcycle layout was essentially a heavy duty bicycle with an engine in the V of the frame, driving the rear wheel by a chain and with a fuel tank wrapped around the top bar. Our first combination was with a side valve Norton with a “spring frame”, ie the front wheel was sprung a by a cantilever of coil springs at the head end while the rear wheel was unsprung. Our second combination was again a 500cc single cylinder Norton now with over head valves and the front suspension by hydraulic forks. Again the rear wheel was unsprung. The side car was an open Watsonian single seater with folding hood.

This was our family transport. My father had a solo AJS before he married. A motor cycle combination was within his means and so we had these second hand machines. I can’t say our travel was very ambitious. The very unusual journey was to go on holiday to Southsea. More usually we visited mothers family near Coalville and also in Coventry. However one fairly regular trip was to go to motorcycle grasstrack races at Kirkby Mallory. At that time this was a former horse racing track which was later extended and surfaced and renamed Mallory Park.

Sometimes we went with second cousins Joan and  Stan and their two daughters who were just a bit younger than me. Although they had graduated to a Ford Anglia car Stan was a great  motorcycle enthusiast. Essentially the track was a slightly squashed oval with a large grassy bank by one straight which had the start/finish line.

There was a slightly amateurish air about the race organised by the Leicester Query Motorcycle club. We would generally go on a Sunday morning arriving mid morning as practice was underway, have a picnic lunch with the race card in the afternoon.. During the lunch break I would go with my father to the motorcycle parking area. There was a dazzling variety of makes, Velocette, Matchless, BSA, AJS, Norton, Triumph and Ariel. All were made in Britain in fairly modest numbers. The most exotic was a Vincent Black Shadow; the 1000cc machine being the fastest on the market. Just about the only foreign machine was BMW which were distinctive in having a shaft rather than a chain drive and with horitzontally opposed cylinders. Generally the British bikes were either single cylinder or inline twin.

The racing was by specially adapted grass track machines in 4 classes depending on capacity, 250cc, 500cc, 650cc and 1000cc. The hero of the day was often Dick Tolley winning the higher capacity solo machine races. Particularly exciting were the sidecar races. The sidecars were little more than a platform with a wheel. Now combinations are inherently asymmetric so the passenger would move his weight to compensate , hanging over the rear wheel on left corners and as far out as he dared on right hand. Bill Boddice was the sidecar racer par excellence. A favourite race to end the  day was a side car handicap race, 250cc off first then 500, 650 and 1000 cc at intervals. If judged correctly all would come together at the final bend. Very exciting!

Sadly that plethora of brands didn’t last and the British motorcycle industry collapsed in the 60’s and 70’s. A lot of prestige was attached to racing. A particularly Britsh example was the Tourist Trophy races on the Isle of Man. In the 50’s the race had been won by single cylinder Norton bikes ( they branded a premier machine as the Manx) but they were swept away firstly by Italian premium bikes like Gilera and then later by Japanese brands such as Honda.

Regrettably it wasn’t just conservative design, but quality and reliability were lacking. There were some imaginative attempts such as the Ariel Leader an all enclosed machine which went some way towards the cleanliness of scooters. It wasn’t just the bikes themselves which lagged but accessories were also not reaching the standards of the foreign bikes. The jibe “Joe Lucas, prince of darkness” had a smidgen of truth for Lucas, the near universal electrics supplier..

As the British motorbike industry withered it wasn’t helped by clumsy state intervention in the Meriden factory of Triumph. That factory closed in the 70’s but a completely different operation still using the Triumph brand is about the only British manufacturer standing today. The new Triumph appears to be doing OK but the industry is now dominated by the Japanese giants, Yamaha, Suzuki and Honda.

A footnote is deserved by the brief Hesketh brand, intended as a superb super premium machine but underdeveloped and so with problems. It was built in small numbers by an organisation led by Lord Hesketh. Unfortunately that folded as he just didn’t have the resources to continue. Resuscitation attempts subsequently were unsuccessful.

Every day in every way.......

…things are getting better. I don’t feel I’m particularly “pollyanna-ish” but I do get a bit upset when folks exhibit excessive pessimism. It would be altogether easy to be pessimistic as democracy looks worse with populists doing well. However we should remember that Trumps election on a minority vote was after a twisted ballot while in Europe there has been some very odd results, not least in the UK referendum. We can hope that our  institutions are sufficiently robust to withstand the attacks of the demagogues.

However I’m reminded of the larger perspective  by a new book by Steven Pinker “Enlightenment Now”. Pinker has written some very thought provoking books in the past and this is no exception.. Pinker’s thesis, which is well supported by the evidence presented, is that the 18^th century enlightenment opened mankind to reason, science, humanism and progress. In fact his sub title uses these very words.

Naturally the news media tends to amplify the bad stories and neglect the good.. The example quoted “Number of People in Extreme Poverty fell by 137, 000 since yesterday” would have true every day for the past 25 years; but it isn’t newsworthy so most don’t know.

The evidence quoted is striking. The world is 100 times wealthier than 200 years ago and contrary to popular opinion wealth is more evenly spread. In the US during the 20^th century Americans became 96% less likely to die in a car crash, 92% less likely to die in a fire and 95% less likely to die in a work accident.. The share of people killed in a war is now less than a quarter what is was in 1980.

One of the reasons that we have pension difficulties is that we are living longer. Longer life means adjustments but is to be celebrated. IQ has advanced by 30 points in the past 100 years as a result of better nutrition, better schooling and better culture

Pinker points out that improvements have been rapid with luxuries not even available to the very richest 100 years ago now common place. It is a cliché to say that smart phone users have a supercomputer in their pocket which was something unheard of when I was young. The colossal advance in microelectronics has taken us from room sized to pocket sized computers in my working lifetime. The computer advance is taking humanity into wholly new areas such as artificial intelligence.

Pinker answers the naysayers who say people may be better off but aren’t happier. However in the World Values Survey happiness has increased in 45 out of 52 countries.

Pinker points out that reason is replacing faith. Although 59% of people worldwide describe themselves as religious this is down from nearly 100% a century ago. Less and less are humans realising that an appeal to “magic” in any form is not a substitute for reason.

All this doesn’t mean that humanity doesn’t face huge problems. The existential issue appears to be global warming. While there is much to be done the Paris accord offers hope which is being supported by some big technological advances. Even though Trump is a denier many sensible US institutions are simply getting on with the job and ignoring him.

Just to point out one apparent issue which is much commented upon is the population growth. Some pundits are extrapolating past growth and raising horror stories. An intelligent look at demographics demonstrates they are wrong. As societies become wealthier their birth rate falls. Many richer counties are actually experiencing population falls- an example is Japan. There will be a lag as past growth will mean more absolute growth even as the birth rate falls. It is remarkable that birth rates in China have fallen albeit under an authoritarian regime ready to impose a national control under the “one child” policy. Now such control is relaxed increasing wealth means people are choosing voluntarily to have fewer children. It seems that the extraordinary increase in prosperity is having a larger effect than imposed controls by a totalitarian regime.

Some are turning away from enlightenment values just when humankind needs them as much as ever.