…things are
getting better. I don’t feel I’m particularly “pollyanna-ish” but I do get a
bit upset when folks exhibit excessive pessimism. It would be altogether easy
to be pessimistic as democracy looks worse with populists doing well. However
we should remember that Trumps election on a minority vote was after a twisted
ballot while in Europe there has been some very odd results, not least in the
UK referendum. We can hope that our institutions
are sufficiently robust to withstand the attacks of the demagogues.
However I’m
reminded of the larger perspective by a
new book by Steven Pinker “Enlightenment Now”. Pinker has written some very
thought provoking books in the past and this is no exception.. Pinker’s thesis,
which is well supported by the evidence presented, is that the 18th
century enlightenment opened mankind to reason, science, humanism and progress.
In fact his sub title uses these very words.
Naturally the
news media tends to amplify the bad stories and neglect the good.. The example
quoted “Number of People in Extreme Poverty fell by 137, 000 since yesterday” would
have true every day for the past 25 years; but it isn’t newsworthy so most
don’t know.
The evidence
quoted is striking. The world is 100 times wealthier than 200 years ago and
contrary to popular opinion wealth is more evenly spread. In the US during the
20th century Americans became 96% less likely to die in a car crash,
92% less likely to die in a fire and 95% less likely to die in a work
accident.. The share of people killed in a war is now less than a quarter what
is was in 1980.
One of the
reasons that we have pension difficulties is that we are living longer. Longer
life means adjustments but is to be celebrated. IQ has advanced by 30 points in
the past 100 years as a result of better nutrition, better schooling and better
culture
Pinker points
out that improvements have been rapid with luxuries not even available to the
very richest 100 years ago now common place. It is a cliché to say that smart
phone users have a supercomputer in their pocket which was something unheard of
when I was young. The colossal advance in microelectronics has taken us from
room sized to pocket sized computers in my working lifetime. The computer
advance is taking humanity into wholly new areas such as artificial
intelligence.
Pinker
answers the naysayers who say people may be better off but aren’t happier.
However in the World Values Survey happiness has increased in 45 out of 52
countries.
Pinker points
out that reason is replacing faith. Although 59% of people worldwide describe
themselves as religious this is down from nearly 100% a century ago. Less and
less are humans realising that an appeal to “magic” in any form is not a
substitute for reason.
All this
doesn’t mean that humanity doesn’t face huge problems. The existential issue
appears to be global warming. While there is much to be done the Paris accord
offers hope which is being supported by some big technological advances. Even
though Trump is a denier many sensible US institutions are simply getting on
with the job and ignoring him.
Just to point
out one apparent issue which is much commented upon is the population growth.
Some pundits are extrapolating past growth and raising horror stories. An
intelligent look at demographics demonstrates they are wrong. As societies
become wealthier their birth rate falls. Many richer counties are actually
experiencing population falls- an example is Japan. There will be a lag as past
growth will mean more absolute growth even as the birth rate falls. It is
remarkable that birth rates in China have fallen albeit under an authoritarian
regime ready to impose a national control under the “one child” policy. Now
such control is relaxed increasing wealth means people are choosing voluntarily
to have fewer children. It seems that the extraordinary increase in prosperity
is having a larger effect than imposed controls by a totalitarian regime.
Some are
turning away from enlightenment values just when humankind needs them as much
as ever.
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