Climate change

Climate change

The earth is getter warmer. This is as much a matter of everyday experience as scientific measurement. In general spring comes earlier and autumn later. This is climate, not weather, as the snow in March and April showed. Just in my lifetime when I was a boy living not very far from where I live now we had snow several times every winter with a heavy fall every few years. We have simply never had a winter like 1947, 1955 or 1963 since I came back to live here in 1987.

There are just a few “respectable” deniers left: their number decreasing every year. By respectable I mean those who look at the evidence and try and evaluate it in a rational way. Their general argument, as I understand it, is that the sun’s output undergoes long term fluctuations. For example in the 16^th century there was a slight dip with long severe winters. From that time were recorded “frost fairs” held on the frozen Thames on thick ice. Since these changes exist they argue the sun’s output has increased a little and hence temperatures have risen.

There are many arguments against not least that there is no evidence whatsoever for an increase in solar output. I have only just realised that there is clinching evidence. This demands just a little ( very gentle, I promise ) science. Climate change is held by most to depend on levels of carbon dioxide ( and other greenhouse gases such as methane ) in the atmosphere. This carbon dioxide is the result of burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas. Carbon dioxide very slightly dissolves in water to form a very weak acid, carbonic acid. The more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere the more carbonic acid in water. The level of acid in water can be measured very accurately and shows a rise, particularly in seawater. This increase in ocean acidification cannot possibly be caused by solar changes while it relates directly to carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

Ocean acidification is having an effect on natural organisms. While ocean warming is having a very direct and large effect on coral causing it to die back a part of the cause is acidification.

The irrational denial appears to be based on the idea that climate change isn’t actually happening but is a plot  by green types to sabotage the existing economy. There are some green fanatics who are seeking to overthrow society but these are very much the lunatic fringe. Donald Trump is acting on this but more seriously is trying to muzzle those who look at the evidence and counter his prejudice.

It may easily be argued that mild warming , say by two degrees, wouldn’t be so bad. After all if the Midlands enjoyed the climate of Northern France that could be quite pleasant. Unfortunately that won’t happen. The climate of the UK is governed by the Gulf Stream a current of warmer water starting in the Caribbean. As the Arctic ice melts the torrent of freshwater may disrupt, even stop the Gulf Stream. This would leave the UK with a climate like Norway.

Another big problem is the increase in sea level. While floating ice is not a problem as the melt water would occupy roughly the same volume, a huge amount of water is locked up as inland ice particularly in Antarctica. As this melts sea levels will rise. Quite apart from risk of occasional flooding( which already happens ) parts of coastal cities will be permanently under water. Very low lying countries, such as some Pacific islands would disappear.

Global warming will also change the weather. Generally the expectation is for more stormy weather with severe shifts in rainfall. It seems quite likely that we have had some experience of this already.

Global warming is man made and reversible. There is a fairly clear path towards rectifying the situation. It is good to see that some in the US are just ignoring Trump and getting on with the job( the state of California is a good example ) Here in the UK, while not perfect there are sensible