Roundup 2021
It is the
fashion for all sorts to pass opinion on the past year and the coming one. I
daresay my view is idiosyncratic but here it is.
Obviously from
a health perspective it has been another Covid year. Vaccines raised our hopes
and Omicron has dashed them. Still we can hope the present peak will pass
quickly and than vaccines prove as good as we hope.
My general
feeing is fairly angry; perhaps anger is too strong and associated with people
I detest, but I am very irritated.
I’m irritated
but unsurprised that the Brexit issues are catching up with us. It was always
going to be a slowly evolving economic penalty. This has largely been hidden
from public consciousness by the Covid pandemic. What is more surprising is
that the leavers are still fighting the battle. Led by Boris Johnson the dual
push is to insult the Europeans as much as possible while denying there are any
Brexit penalties. My impression is leavers are whistling to keep their spirits
up.
The promised
trade deals look ever more marginal. Boris by appearing to want to renege on
the Ireland deal has ensured that there is no chance of a deal on trade with
the USA whose President cares about Ireland. Cosying up to Trump didn’t do him
or us any favours.
The world in
general has become a more depressing place. The threat from China get’s worse
every day while Putin’s Russia is becoming more aggressive For those like me
who would hope to see a more liberal rational world the even bigger danger is
that the big liberal democracies are falling prey to irrationality. The
spectacle of 99 MP’s voting against a simple public health measure was
dispiriting. Even worse was the extreme rhetoric used by some of them. To
pretend the temporary measures were a step to a fascist state was so stupid as
to be laughable. Less amusing is my suspicion that these are some of the very
people who would happily support truly fascist measures.
More dangerous
is the American situation. Trump persists in the lie that his election loss was
fraudulent. Despite all the evidence that he is unhinged it appears that the
Republican Party is in his thrall. Their saner members are being squeezed out.
It is better
news that the Labour party is moving away from the madness and anti semitism of
the Corbyn years. The worrying part is that he still enjoys some support from a
segment which I suspect will cause future trouble.
The better news
was that liberal causes did advance. The problem is that the “woke” element
look to be exaggerating the advances and thereby putting them at risk. This
advance isn’t everywhere as the American anti abortion lobby is slowly imposing
its opinions on US society.
On the
technology front there were some good benefits. The much ballyhooed 5G internet
finally arrived for early adopters. The famous “internet of things” still seems
as far away as ever. It was good news that the incredibly expensive James Webb
telescope launched in Christmas Day. Even so a lot has to go right before it
becomes fully functional. One name, that of Elon Musk, was associated with some
visionary technology through Space X, Neuralink, and Hyperloop. Through the
astonishing, and very welcome, success of Tesla he has become the world’s
richest man. Despite much obstructionism
and a lot of nay saying he is doing a lot to advance humanity.
The success of
vaccines owes much to progress in biosciences. These look to continue at an even faster rate.
I was mildly disappointed by COP26 the
international climate conference. However I detect a definite shift in opinion.
In view of the floods, fires and other extreme climate events the deniers are
on a back foot. While some are just impervious to evidence I hope some will see
evidence that it is not just a prediction for the future but is happening now.
In the context
of energy production wind is now firmly established as a low cost method of
electricity generation. This is also true of solar in sunnier climes. Welcome
attention is now turning to other carbon sources. No good answer on space
heating is forthcoming yet despite political bleating about heat pumps; fine
for new houses but retrofitting doesn’t look practical at any reasonable cost.
There are suggestions that a hydrogen economy might be suitable.
One fact is
that a truly massive investment will be needed for the post carbon economy.
There are positive signs that private investment is beginning to see a
profitable end point and putting investment in place. On the opposite side there
are also signs that fear of stranded assets is stopping finance of new
coalfired power stations. The world faces a difficult problem of synchronising
the run down of carbon with the ramp up of replacements. Hysterical voices
calling for an end to oil and gas investment could lead to even worse energy
crunches than the one we are experiencing.
Speaking of
hysterical voices the eco terrorists of Insulate Britain have done a lot to
antagonise sensible society. A
major own goal which will set
back sensible measures to combat climate change. The costly and ineffective
roll out of smart meters shows how easy it is for wrong headed pressure groups
to impose costly measures. The subject of cost is of major importance. It
appears that a lot of quite sensible measures will require upfront costs before
the eventual benefit emerges. We can expect to see plenty of rabble rousers
decrying the costs; it is necessary to prepare now for public relations giving
the facts.
It seems to me
that society is very much in muddling through mode. I hope we are seeing two
steps forward for one back; I fear it may be more like one forward, one back.