Ukraine invasion

 

Ukraine invasion

I am surprised that this invasion came as a surprise to some. It has been clear for some time that a new Cold War era is beginning. Without immodesty I can say it was clearly prefigured in this blog. For example I wrote in the beginning of 2020 that the evidence was clear. There has been an atmosphere of naivety about developments in both Russia and China where a very different philosophy of life has emerged. In this axis of evil intent it is China who pose the greatest threat.

The philosophical difference can be summed up as the West sees individual freedom as overwhelmingly important and the state exists to provide a framework which allows this freedom to be exercised. In Russia, China and other minor states like Iran, Cuba and Venezuela the state is all important and the individual exists only to live as the state demands. These authoritarian states have rulers who are often self selected and rely upon a coercive state apparatus to continue as rulers. Individuals living in these states have little to no say in deciding who their rulers should be. Individual freedom is greatly curtailed in these states.

When the communist bloc collapsed in 1989 Russia didn’t change immediately. It took an attempted coup to establish Yeltsin as a leader with a  degree of popular support from 1991.There was then a period of some ten years when there was an effort to establish in  Russia a modern state with the rule of law, democracy and a free economy. In the hurried process of moving from a state dominated economy to a  free economy, resources were plundered by those we now call oligarchs. The population had for 70 years lived under state domination of news and information and adjusted slowly to the new conditions. A “strong” leader emerged in Putin who appealed to the nationalist sentiment among those who looked for central direction. Once elected Putin, originally an ex KGB officer, has steadily moved to revert back to the Soviet era. He yearns for the geopolitical situation as it existed post WW11. He is completely willing to use any force necessary to prevent any kind of popular rebellion no only in Russia itself but also in anywhere within what he sees as the Russian area of control extending to Belarus and the ‘stans.

Putin has surrounded himself with people who think as he does who are collectively known as the silovoki. The oligarchs and the siloviki are not necessarily one and the same although plenty are in both. He difference is that the oligarchs have grown rich through plundering under the Putin regime while the siloviki ( often ex KGB ) believe in resurrecting the cold war.

Although some areas of the Russian economy are supposedly free in practice the main industries are controlled by the state and run for the benefit of the oligarchs.  They know well that they must obey state nudges if they are to continue to extract the fabulous riches. They will remember years ago that any attempt to show free thinking will lead to expropriation and jail as was exemplified by the fate of the part owner of TNK, a major oil company.

It has been the height of naivety for free societies to continue to allow uninterrupted commerce. I have no sympathy for those companies who foolishly invested in Russia and now stand to lose those investments. Even more culpable has been allowing oligarchs to exploit all the advantages of a free society. Not for nothing has London been referred as Londonograd. It must also be said that many such as lawyers and the like have been only to happy to provide services to these oligarchs. It must also be said that there are others such as Saudi princes and Nigerian crooks who are exploiting the freedom of Western society.

Fundamentally Russia is not a strong country. Although improved since the communist era ( with a lot of Western investment ) the economy is based on export of oil and gas with weak manufacturing. Much emphasis is placed on armaments where in things like tanks Russia is a world leader. However the overall weaker economy means that Russia can barely afford its military machne. In general Russia does not have the best technology except in specific areas which have been selected as priorities. Also the Russian population having tasted limited freedom is less biddable than it was.

China is a different proposition. China has a strong and rapidly growing economy and its population is far more supportive of the state. China is less ethically diverse than Russia with over 90% Han Chinese. Minorities such as Uighurs and Tibetans are being steadily re-educated to follow the Chinese state. State control is more widespread with little access to outside media. The great Chinese firewall ensures the internet reflects its rulers wishes.

The aggressiveness of Chinese rulers ( its claims to Taiwan in particular ) have been met with lukewarm opposition. China has used its big economic strength to influence many countries to accept its claims in exchange for access to the Chinese market. The Chinese aggressiveness is seen by many of its citizens as asserting the nationalist even racialist views of many.

The control over individual freedom in many areas in China is accompanied by a large degree of economic freedom. China has progressed in a short period of some 30-40 years to become a first rank economic power with individual living standards vastly improved. The concept of freedom in the Western sense is happily exchanged by many for improved standards of living. Technological standards are rapidly improving aided by a lot of transfer from the West.

Fuelled by a combination of nationalism and ideology the Chinese leadership sees world domination as its target. They aim to replace individual freedom with their own political structure.

In looking at the world scene we must see more clearly the threat within the West by leaders who despise truth and honesty and consider only their own egos. It is a tragedy that Trump and his like has come to be such a force in US politics.