Russian invasion of Ukraine 11

 

Russian invasion of Ukraine 11

After 4 months since the Russian invasion we can start to draw some preliminary conclusions. Early on the attack went badly but latterly Russia has adopted a strategy of focused and strong artillery attack. This is slowly grinding forward and it appears they will soon control the Donbas region.

The early attack on capital Kyiv was repulsed and so successfully that there was some rather silly talk of “winning” the war. This Ukrainian success seems to stem mainly from two sources. Firstly there was an astoundingly high morale among the defenders who showed great determination and ingenuity. It would also appear the Russian tactics were poor and equipment not as good as expected. The second factor was that weapons supplies from the West were very successful. In particular the anti-tank missile, the Javelin, performed very well ably supported by the Anglo-Swedish NLAW missile.

The Ukrainian forces also made a dogged defence to Black Sea coastal cities particularly Mariaupol while retaining control of Odessa. There was a significant victory in the sinking of the Moska, the Russian fleets largest vessel in the Black Sea.

Clearly this necessitated a Russian rethink. Using their vast superiority in artillery they have chosen to focus on a grinding advance westwards through particularly the Donbas region systematically destroying everything they encounter. The Ukrainian cities and towns have been reduced literally to rubble. Major cities are experiencing 90%+ destruction. It appears the majority of civilians have escaped although the toll of civilian life has been high. As people flee for their lives it appears that the vast majority of civilians are refugees  either in western Ukraine or a high proportion in neighbouring countries.

It appears that the Russian advance has been brutal with atrocities found in areas like Bucha near Kyiv which were Russian occupied before their withdrawal. Men shot with their hands tied, women raped and abused. There seems ample evidence that the Russian strategy is to terrorise the population. It also appears this policy is extending beyond the battlefield areas to the recent attack on a shopping centre with many dead or injured. One can only wonder what the previously pro Russian populations of eastern Donbas think.

All the evidence points to what can only be labelled a psychopathic regime. The Russian people are being fed a diet of lies while all the organs of power are corrupt. Indeed one notable feature of the Russian state is the extent of corruption and theft. It is hard to know exactly what power Putin does have. Certainly he has won pseudo elections for over 20 years. Also early on in his leadership he took pains to eliminate oligarchs who dared question his position. We also must remember that the Russian people have been fed statist, anti democratic propaganda for a century with just a short break in the nineties. I remember from visiting St Petersburg at that time that icons of the former regime were still venerated.

In fact looking at Putin’s history it is very clear that he has been a cold war warrior all his life. He has cunningly incorporated nationalist sentiment into his lies. This has been powerful enough to incorporate some Ukrainians in the former breakaway areas.

Insofar as there has been anything positive from the invasion it is that the values of Western freedom have been enhanced after being taken too much for granted. The error of particularly German attempts to coexist with Putin have been exposed. Both Finland and Sweden have been shown the futility of their pseudo neutrality and have applied to join NATO. In practice they are Western nations and have acted as such while pretending to themselves that they are neutral between the West and Putin’s Russia.

The disappointing reaction to the war in the Third World has been very unhelpful. The illusion they can stand aside and dismiss this as a petty European quarrel entirely underestimates the war. There has been the usual claque of dictatorships such as Syria, Venezuela and Cuba who might be expected to applaud. More problematic has been India where they have been quick to buy Russian oil but slow to protest. India’s leader Modi has himself a strong authoritarian streak and doesn’t hesitate to treat his Moslem peoples as enemies of his preferred Hindu section.

While the Ukraine government is far from ideal at least they are making a honest effort to establish a modern democratic nation. It is good to see that the West has rallied round with meaningful support.

The 21^st century is to be one of struggle between free nations and authoritarian ones. At least the dichotomy is being seen rather more clearly now. The West must settle to the long haul, fight where it must, and minimise unnecessary provocation while maintaining a firmness of purpose. The outcome to be hoped for is something similar to the end of the cold war where internal revolution allows freedom  to break through. We must hope that even the psychopathic shy away from a nuclear holocaust.