Energy 1

I have quite a bit to say about energy so I’ll number my posts. Energy is vitally important to civilisation. Very roughly increasing energy use and increasing civilisation are correlated. In other words as civilisation advances energy usage goes up. While it is quite possible for the amount of energy usage to decrease per unit of advance of “civilisation” I don’t think there is any instance of the absolute energy usage  decreasing which has happened historically or indeed that can be conceived for the future.

We have seen advocates of a “hair shirt” approach but they have never actually put their theories into practice. I cannot imagine going without my washing machine, my computer or keeping warm in winter. Certainly we want our civilising appliances to be as efficient as possible; our houses to be as well insulated as possible but if we are to advance our living standards then overall our energy use will rise.

The existential problem for mankind is that our existing energy sources are killing the planet. It cannot be denied that the planet is warming and the climate is changing. It has been quite visible in my lifetime with milder wetter winters. I wonder how the climate change deniers in Texas reconcile their belief with Hurricane Harvey and its effects. As hurricane frequency increases they must be ready to see the truth.

What is possibly slightly more contentious is whether man made emissions of carbon dioxide and methane are the cause. The overwhelming consensus among scientists is that they are. The counter evidence for some other cause is very thin. It seems that the climate change deniers somehow imagine a political plot. What this could be and what benefit is possible for acceptors seem to exist only in the warped minds of conspiracy theorists. It is sad that America is lumbered with a president that thinks that way.

It is possible I suppose this is part of Michael Gove’s scepticism of experts. Certainly experts aren’t always right. But in this case the evidence is all around, the climate is changing as I’ve said above quite clearly in my lifetime. It would be quite extraordinary for mankind to just sit back and hope for a miraculous change to avoid extinction.

Incidentally I have become extremely tired of the frequently trotted out “over population” by people who seem to lack an understanding of the gigantic demographic transition taking place right now. As soon as people see that their children will survive they stop having so many. The problem is now localised to Africa as everywhere else the transition is well underway. Population will increase for a while as those late to the transition have a lot of people of childbearing age. Although these will have far fewer children than their parents precisely because there are lots of them population will increase for a while.

The replacement ratio ( which keeps population stable ) is about 2.1 children per couple. Post transition the population will fall as all the indications are that modern affluent societies are below 2. In some cases far below and population fall is an issue in a few countries such as Japan now and will become a much more widespread issue in the future. The Chinese numbers are slated to fall before the end of the century.

All our energy comes from the sun, that great fusion reactor in the sky. This can be largely indirect as in wind power or the result of many millennia  as with fossil fuels. Oil , gas and coal are the result of many millennia of plants growing with energy from the sun and then dying under non rotting conditions.

In my lifetime we have gone from coal as the main energy source to a situation where it is disappearing fast. At one time Britain mined about a quarter of a million tons in the fifties to now where there is no deep mining and not much opencast.

There is a deal of sentimental twaddle talked about the loss of coal mining communities. I’m a miner’s son  and the coal miners life was extremely hard. My father always said to me “I don’t care what you do, just don’t go down the pit”.

I was very glad to to go down once just for the experience but I vowed never again. When I was young  three quarters of a million men were committed to the horrible job- not one today which I see as a huge advance.