Eightieth birthday

 

Eightieth birthday

I can scarcely believe I have recently celebrated my 80^th birthday. When I was young 80 seemed a very advanced age but I can genuinely say that although I have poor stamina, poor balance and deafness I don’t feel hugely old. Through the circumstance that so many of the youngsters have examinations just after my birthday I had an official birthday in July. This enabled Alex and Rajiv to attend. Unfortunately it clashed with the final cadet meeting for Ronnie so he didn’t attend although he has finished his A level exams. It is with great pride that I can report that step grandson Rajiv got a first class degree at Cambridge in his recent finals.

My official birthday was marked by a family gathering. All except Ronnie as mentioned above met here at Beechcroft. This has been our family home for 35 years but we are about to move out so there was also nostalgia for the place alongside the celebration. There were no major events just an evening BBQ although we remembered gatherings here in the past when we hired  a bouncy castle. With Martin and family in N Yorkshire and Alison and family in Surrey family get togethers have become more difficult. Frances in Birmingham is both relatively nearby and in more contact than the others.

The days when we could by squeezing accommodate everyone are long gone. Fortunately Frances has a largish house and Alison’s family were accommodated there. This enabled them to travel up by car and then not leave us until late to travel just to Birmingham. Rajiv has started work at the Home Office in London ( on an unestablished basis ), is living in London and travelled separately by train.

This very pleasant event was marred for me by deafness. On a one to one basis when nearby I’m OK but in general group conversation I find it difficult to hear everything that is said. Some of the family have naturally soft voices and the young people don’t seem to speak at all clearly.

Such an occasion is naturally also a time for reflection. I am very satisfied and fortunate with my family. Children didn’t arrive until after several years of marriage and medical intervention was required. Once safely delivered they have been a great source of interest and enjoyment. This has extended to their children so that I now have eight including two step grandsons. Generally academic standards have been very high with my two daughters both winning first class degrees.

More generally I was fortunate in Annette, my life partner. We met fairly young and in hundred per cent hindsight I spent too much time pursuing her when I should have been exploiting my opportunities in higher education. When I was young the inequitable 11 plus system enabled me to go to grammar school and then on to higher education. At precisely the time that I was following an undistinguished school career there was a national recognition of technological education. This I was able to follow.

I graduated at a time of full employment and indeed as a science graduate I had multiple opportunities. In choosing to join Unilever I made a lucky decision as it offered me scope to progress into a lifetime career in product development and also the opportunity to obtain secondment to study for a higher degree

Financially I was fortunate to step onto the housing ladder just as the tremendous wave of house price inflation was beginning. Also I had benefited from free higher education so I started without debts. I can honestly say I don’t know how young people today manage. Home ownership was very much an affordable goal when we were starting out. It was a goal almost all my contemporaries aspired and achieved.

My career was to have its ups and downs when I was made redundant twice within a year. Luckily the right job came along with Castrol where I had two stints totalling about 11 years in all.

The major setback I suffered was a mild stroke in my fifties. Thanks to strong support from Annette I was able to make a decent recovery. Although I did return to full time work for a couple of years I was able to take early retirement and then work part time with a local company for a further 10 years until a normal retirement age of 65.

I did become involved with local affairs ( parish council, school governor, investment club ) until deafness required these be given up. I have a strong interest in reading and literature and I will be extremely sorry to leave the two book clubs which have been important to me over past years. I’m rather surprised to find I have just over 10 years with one and just under 10 with the second.

Pre Covid we could afford to travel quite a bit but I now think this will be curtailed although to an extent we must wait and see. Annette suffers from arthritis and deafness but I would say these are not too limiting for her. Like me her stamina is much less and daytime naps and early nights feature in both our lives.

Russian invasion of Ukraine 11

 

Russian invasion of Ukraine 11

After 4 months since the Russian invasion we can start to draw some preliminary conclusions. Early on the attack went badly but latterly Russia has adopted a strategy of focused and strong artillery attack. This is slowly grinding forward and it appears they will soon control the Donbas region.

The early attack on capital Kyiv was repulsed and so successfully that there was some rather silly talk of “winning” the war. This Ukrainian success seems to stem mainly from two sources. Firstly there was an astoundingly high morale among the defenders who showed great determination and ingenuity. It would also appear the Russian tactics were poor and equipment not as good as expected. The second factor was that weapons supplies from the West were very successful. In particular the anti-tank missile, the Javelin, performed very well ably supported by the Anglo-Swedish NLAW missile.

The Ukrainian forces also made a dogged defence to Black Sea coastal cities particularly Mariaupol while retaining control of Odessa. There was a significant victory in the sinking of the Moska, the Russian fleets largest vessel in the Black Sea.

Clearly this necessitated a Russian rethink. Using their vast superiority in artillery they have chosen to focus on a grinding advance westwards through particularly the Donbas region systematically destroying everything they encounter. The Ukrainian cities and towns have been reduced literally to rubble. Major cities are experiencing 90%+ destruction. It appears the majority of civilians have escaped although the toll of civilian life has been high. As people flee for their lives it appears that the vast majority of civilians are refugees  either in western Ukraine or a high proportion in neighbouring countries.

It appears that the Russian advance has been brutal with atrocities found in areas like Bucha near Kyiv which were Russian occupied before their withdrawal. Men shot with their hands tied, women raped and abused. There seems ample evidence that the Russian strategy is to terrorise the population. It also appears this policy is extending beyond the battlefield areas to the recent attack on a shopping centre with many dead or injured. One can only wonder what the previously pro Russian populations of eastern Donbas think.

All the evidence points to what can only be labelled a psychopathic regime. The Russian people are being fed a diet of lies while all the organs of power are corrupt. Indeed one notable feature of the Russian state is the extent of corruption and theft. It is hard to know exactly what power Putin does have. Certainly he has won pseudo elections for over 20 years. Also early on in his leadership he took pains to eliminate oligarchs who dared question his position. We also must remember that the Russian people have been fed statist, anti democratic propaganda for a century with just a short break in the nineties. I remember from visiting St Petersburg at that time that icons of the former regime were still venerated.

In fact looking at Putin’s history it is very clear that he has been a cold war warrior all his life. He has cunningly incorporated nationalist sentiment into his lies. This has been powerful enough to incorporate some Ukrainians in the former breakaway areas.

Insofar as there has been anything positive from the invasion it is that the values of Western freedom have been enhanced after being taken too much for granted. The error of particularly German attempts to coexist with Putin have been exposed. Both Finland and Sweden have been shown the futility of their pseudo neutrality and have applied to join NATO. In practice they are Western nations and have acted as such while pretending to themselves that they are neutral between the West and Putin’s Russia.

The disappointing reaction to the war in the Third World has been very unhelpful. The illusion they can stand aside and dismiss this as a petty European quarrel entirely underestimates the war. There has been the usual claque of dictatorships such as Syria, Venezuela and Cuba who might be expected to applaud. More problematic has been India where they have been quick to buy Russian oil but slow to protest. India’s leader Modi has himself a strong authoritarian streak and doesn’t hesitate to treat his Moslem peoples as enemies of his preferred Hindu section.

While the Ukraine government is far from ideal at least they are making a honest effort to establish a modern democratic nation. It is good to see that the West has rallied round with meaningful support.

The 21^st century is to be one of struggle between free nations and authoritarian ones. At least the dichotomy is being seen rather more clearly now. The West must settle to the long haul, fight where it must, and minimise unnecessary provocation while maintaining a firmness of purpose. The outcome to be hoped for is something similar to the end of the cold war where internal revolution allows freedom  to break through. We must hope that even the psychopathic shy away from a nuclear holocaust.

Artificial Intelligence IV

 

Artificial Intelligence IV

The neural net approach to AI has proven very productive. To reiterate the general idea is to train the AI with lots of examples curated by a human. Thus for example by giving the AI lots of pictures of dogs and saying what type of dog the AI “leans” and can identify the type of dog on an unknown image. This is thought to be the way the brain works by reinforcing pathways which are correct and slimming down those which are not.

The big problem with this approach is that a lot of training data is needed which must be annotated by a human. The good thing about this approach is that it appears completely scaleable  ie. there seems to be no upper limit to the number of examples which is constrained only by the size of the computer. The practical limit is imposed by the size of the training set and the cost of the human describing that set. Big training sets are better but amount of human effort becomes very large and expensive. Computer hardware costs are falling so fast that computer power is not a limiting factor.

A recent development is the self referencing AI. Suppose a text is taken as input. The AI takes a word and tries to estimate what the next word will be. It can check the next word and cycle around until it gets the right answer learning as it goes.. Language contains a lot of redundancy which makes the next word guess much easier. The huge advantage is that the training set doesn’t need the slow and costly human step.

In the jargon of area the coefficient ( weight )  applied to different calculations is called a parameter. To experimenters surprise models with a large number of parameters showed improvements above simply scale. For example through text analysis an AI could correctly interpret a simple addition when that was expressed as a human might as two plus two rather than symbolic 2+2.

Because much larger models with more parameters are more easily possible it is becoming easier to combine into less specialist tasks. These are known as foundation models. Previously AI’s were useful for specific tasks. An AI trained to identify types of dog would be of little use for anything else although excellent and far better than a human in its particular area.. It wouldn’t exhibit enough intelligence to know if it was presented with the image of a cat.

Adding many more and different parameters makes the AI far more generalist. As the number of parameters increases( and we are talking billions ) so the AI increasingly becomes intelligent in a human sense This seems to be improving faster than just linearly with the number of parameters.

One famous test of computer intelligence is the Turing test, named after computer scientist Alan Turing. This imagines a situation where a human communicates with an unseen device by teletype. If the human cannot see any difference between a computer or a human then the Turing test is passed. Quite how flexible AI’s become remains to be seen..

It seems clear that this point is very near. It perhaps needs to be admitted there have been false dawns before and it could turn out this is another., There are many issues and hurdles along the way. If there are problems with the training data  hideous issues can occur. This seems to hark back to the old computer GIGO joke, garbage in, garbage out.

I’m adding a minor personal note. I usually take my comments on science and technology from the specialist press. I try and keep abreast of current developments both in science generally and in particular areas of technology in which I’m interested. In this case however my information comes from a longer article published in the “Economist”. I’m finding that AI is  not being covered very well in the specialist press. The “Economist” has an honourable tradition of specialist “in depth “ reporting  which is in both a weekly science section and a quarterly review devoted to technology. However in this case the item on AI appears as a stand alone article not within its specific sections and I have not seen it reported upon elsewhere.

A curious footnote is that an AI scientist at Google has apparently claimed that a chatbot on which he was working is sentient. His employer disclaims this and his view is not held by other scientists. His mistake is suggested to be because of the human tendency to anthropomorphise ( attribute human characteristics to )  inanimate inventions such as cartoon characters. Pet owners commonly attribute human like characteristics to their pets.

Artificial Intelligence 111

 

Artificial Intelligence 111

To put a context around this technology the term embraces a fundamental change in computer programming. To date computer programming has been based around a detailed understanding of the process to be computerised and a step by step translation into instructions for the computer. The general word for this is that an algorithm is constructed. This is a fancy way of saying that the problem is precisely understood and a solution can be developed.

An example would be the calculation on the interest paid at 2.5% on a principal of £1500 over 2years and 7 months. This is a precise calculation which can only give one answer and the way of calculating it is also known precisely.

Back when I was a student this was contrasted with heuristics where the precise solution is unknown but human intuition based perhaps on analogy can lead towards a solution. Heuristics can lead to rules, by which are really meant generalisations. Heuristics often doesn’t give one precisely correct answer but rather a series of options depending on the precise nature of the question

An example might be a controller of traffic lights at a multi way junction. If the lights can detect vehicles then one might say release traffic until all vehicles have passed on the major route, Conversely only stop the major route in both directions if a vehicle approaches on a minor route. Then suppose we want the lights to behave differently at rush hour. Different rules might be say let the first 50 vehicles pass on the major route before switching. So far an algorithm could be applied but then suppose some more general conditions were applied such as requirement for the lights to perform in the most optimal manner reducing vehicle delays to a minimum. Then a precise solution would be unlikely and heuristics would be needed ( Incidentally I would like to see this no doubt hideously expensive solution used )

Artificial intelligence is fundamentally different. It is based upon the study of the brain and how it works. Essentially the brain consists of neurons connected to others in what can be thought of as layers. When we learn the pathway from neuron to neuron is strengthened for a right answer and not strengthened if the answer is wrong. Artificial intelligence uses a brain like structure often called a neural net. This network can be many layers deep. As it stands the network knows nothing but is trained by giving examples. Suppose a neural net is asked to say when given a picture whether it is a cat or a dog. Many thousands of pictures are presented and the trainer tells the net whether it is a cat or a dog. If a dog then connections are reinforced in one way, if a cat then reinforced in another.

Subsequently if presented with an unknown image the net can respond either down the dog route or the cat route depending on where the neuron connections have been reinforced. The power of AI is that the network can interpolate, ie observing that the image is ( say ) dog like but not cat like. Generally AI cannot extrapolate very well.

It can be seen there are two fundamental steps. Firstly setting up the neural net and second training it on external data of known type. This process is totally different from trying give instructions to the computer which enables it  to differentiate between cats and dogs.

This a grossly oversimplified description of AI but the principle is always the same. AI needs a lot of training data. This explains why such data is so valuable. An AI system may be able to see patterns in data which a human cannot. On the other hand an AI has no common sense. Even a well trained AI can look at a dog and see something entirely different.

One intriguing way in which an AI system can be used is to unleash it on a system and just tell it when its right or wrong. The AI can slowly learn the system and may even spot hitherto unknown possibilities. AI’s are particularly good at games which have precise rules but give rise to very many possibilities like chess. A good AI can beat a chess master.

One heavily publicised possibility is self driving vehicles. As this is written there are prototypes on roads. Often this is within particular boundaries such as the City of Phoenix in the USA. Such prototypes usually have manual supervision. Tesla cars have an extremely advanced version which has the objective of only using camera “eyes” and capable of driving anywhere. Vehicles have been made available in beta test to the public but are not generally available. The self driving AI continues to be tweaked

It is important to realise that AI’s are not intelligent in the way a human is. Humans bring a lot of general learning to tasks and generally avoid the kind of silly mistakes that an AI can make. For example if a human looks at an animal picture with the name tag “Tiiddles” round its neck then the human can probably guess the animal is a cat without any more information from the picture. This is the kind of intelligence which an AI would find difficult.

Some eminent technologists are concerned about the future. They worry that an AI could invent a better version of itself and that this could escalate into a super intelligence far outstripping humans.

One doesn’t go very far without coming across the “Three laws of robotics” Conceived in science fiction by the eminent writer Isaac Asimov they are sometimes seen as the basis of a “thought experiment” when AI has advanced far enough.

The laws are-

1 A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.

2 A robot must obey instructions given to it by a human being unless this conflicts with First Law

3 A robot must protect its own existence unless this conflicts with First or Second Law.

Although a fictional device these laws are very widely quoted. There have been various efforts to pronounce in advance ethical principles for robotics. Incidentally it should be noted these are for self mobile robots while all existing examples of AI are static “brains”

An immense amount of money and brain power are being invested in AI and the field is moving fast. After previous false dawns it does seem as though exciting tools are on the verge of development. There has been some over excited speculation of mass unemployment. All previous technological developments tell us this is highly unlikely; more leisure hopefully, but also different jobs made possible by AI tools.

On becomimg eighty

 

On becoming eighty

It is often said that particular dates are just that; dates arbitrarily allocated in the river of time. For all that we give particular dates a great symbolic importance. So it is that I give importance to passing my eightieth birthday.

When I was young eighty was extreme old age. I don’t think I had any relatives who were over eighty. I don’t think that I thought of my life as a whole and if I ever did I certainly never thought about reaching this grand old age. In general in this blog I haven’t written much about myself. I have tended  more to write about subjects which interest me and about which I know something which I hope is of some interest to others. So at this milestone in my life I hope I can be excused for devoting myself to my life.

The first thing to say is that I don’t particularly feel eighty. I am conscious of slowing down and becoming quite a bit physically restricted. My balance is poor and led to a recent incident where I lost my balance, fell and suffered a minor injury. This was while visiting my bookclub co-ordinators house. I struck my head, suffered a minor scalp wound which bled quite copiously as head wounds do. A colleague in the group was alarmed, called emergency services and quite convinced them I was seriously injured.  She was so convincing that an ambulance came from Wolverhampton to Lichfield by which time the bleeding had stopped and, although shaky, I was relatively OK. In fact I was quite embarrassed by all the fuss. I was checked over, my wife collected me, and I felt no particular ill effects.

This incident does reinforce my caution about falling. It was a fall while visiting Camberley about 15 years ago which led to a broken hip and prolonged issues I do not wish to repeat. To add to my fears my cousin, recently deceased ,suffered two bad falls separated by a couple of years which led firstly to her being housebound and then hospitalised before she died. Although well into her nineties this was an unhappy time for her.

Thinking about relatives she was the last surviving cousin on my mothers side. I was the youngest but this is a sobering thought.. My children are now middle aged; it gives me a shock to hear my son at fifty looking  into early retirement and changing direction.

In terms of changing direction I have been persuaded by Annette that our present house is now far too large and that we should move to what was our holiday flat This means moving from a substantial house into a two bedroom flat. The effect is not of moving a quart into a pint pot bur rather into a thimble. I have been a hobbyist and collector ( Annette says a hoarder! ) and in preparation for moving we are brutally slimming down.

The actual day started with my card from Annette being a photo collage from childhood to the present day. One was a photo where I’m with childhood friends and also a rather mysterious older girl ( Rachel Quimby ? ). I think its possible she was baby sitter for my friends who were second cousins Janet and Susan. An unexpected pleasure was a card from my niece, Clare. I’m very pleased that I’m the person in our family to keep in touch with her as she is estranged from her father who has mental health issues.

In the evening I attended our Hopwas book club. To my surprise they knew it was my birthday ( from Facebook ) and had brought a sponge cake which we had with our coffee. It was pleasant to see they were surprised that I was eighty

The day after, on Saturday ,we met up for a high tea with Frances and family. Frances had bought a balloon saying 80, a box of chocs and something in a bottle which was as she put it “ a balloon anchor “. The tea was too much and we got a “doggie bag” of uneaten cake for Ben. Since we lived in our  Oxford house,  just travelling back at weekends, when Frances was a teenager we have a special link from that time  I was working for Castrol at Pangbourne. It is hard to imagine that she is nearing her silver wedding. I’m still slightly puzzled that her daughter Alice has now decided to call herself Jaden on Whatsapp.

I feel very fortunate to have such wonderful children and grandchildren. My daughters are both very capable managers after strong academic backgrounds, both got firsts at university. My son successfully battled cancer as a student but just managed a degree. He has been working remotely as an IT networks specialist for about ten years. He managed a very successful family transition  to North Yorkshire and our move will be about five miles away to our former holiday flat in Whitby.

I would be less than honest if I didn’t admit to doubts about our move. Annette is keen to leave what has become far too large a property.  We came here 35 years ago when our circumstances with the children still at school were totally different. We will be making an entirely new type of life and I’m hoping we have the flexibility and resilience to be successful.

Black Holes

 

Black Holes

In describing Black holes it would be as well to first describe the structure of the universe. Our planet Earth is circling the sun along with 8 other planets. The sun is a star which may be described as a big concentration of ( mainly ) hydrogen gas which is so big that the pressure and temperature at its core enables fusion reactions to take place. These fuse hydrogen atoms together producing helium along with huge amounts of energy. This is the same process as a hydrogen bomb although happening at an immense scale and continuously.

The sun is one of many millions of stars grouped together in our home galaxy. Throughout the universe are very many millions of galaxies. The universe is very big and modern measurements suggest it is expanding. It is important to grasp the universe is not expanding into anything. There is nothing, no space, no time. The analogy often used for the expanding universe is that the universe is a bit like a balloon with galaxies on its surface. As the balloon inflates it expands and the galaxies on its surface grow further apart. This is happening in three dimensions. The effect is that we are finding other stars are becoming more distant although even at big distances the effect is still quite small.

First a largely theoretical concept Black holes became important when it was realised that a large one existed at the centre of our galaxy. Our galaxy is shaped rather like a disc with a bulged centre and spiral arms like a giant Catherine wheel. Our sun is positioned out along a spiral arm. When we look up on a clear night we see a great concentration of stars in a overhead band, the Milky Way. Indeed our galaxy is called the Milky Way and the effect arises because we are looking in from the side of the disc.

The spiral arms are rotating around the centre at high speed, so high that it became apparent that only the gravity of something very large at the centre stopped stars like the sun from flying away into space. That something is a Black hole. A Black hole is something where the gravity is so strong that even light cannot escape; it is quite literally black because nothing can escape. The Black hole has at its centre some form of matter of fantastic density, so dense that something the size of earth is only the size of a suitcase.

Before this seems impossible it is as well to know that ordinary matter, the atoms of which we are made, is almost entirely space with a small nucleus of protons and neutrons with electrons orbiting around at large distances away. This is a very simple view of an atom which is more complex but gives  the idea that an atom is mostly space. Under Black hole conditions that space disappears and a very large density is obtained. A minute bit of such matter would weigh millions of tons.

Astronomers have just seen and photographed this Black hole at the centre of the Milky Way Black holes vary in size and this has the mass of many suns. There is an immediate question- a Black hole is black, totally black, so in fact what we see is a halo of hot gas in the process of being ingested with a silhouette of nothing in the middle. In fact this halo isn’t symmetrical but rather blobby as the Black hole spins .This irregularity may be an artefact of the way the observations were made. One slight puzzle is that it was expected we would see the hole side on rather than face on as is actually observed.

The above description of a Black hole is rather limited. Einstein has shown that gravity is the result of a curvature in space-time. In a Black hole  the curvature has become so great that nothing can emerge. The above description of density of matter is a gross approximation of a phenomena which is beyond the scope of present day physics. There is a useful cop-out which says that a Black hole proceeds to a singularity; in other words to something we don’t understand. In fact what we know and can observe is that at some point in space the gravity around the Black hole is so intense that any matter will fall into the hole. This line around the hole is called the event horizon.

The observation of the Black hole was made with the Event Horizon Telescope which is several radio observatories at different places in the world working together.

It is thought that Black holes can be very large indeed. The one at the centre of our galaxy is much smaller than the only other previous visualisation which is several billions of suns in size. Very small Black holes are thought possible and there was some alarming speculation that the Large Hadron Collider could produce them. Physicists were confident this was not the case and so it proved.

For all practical purposes matter falling into a Black hole has left the universe.

Authoritarian Advance

 

Authoritarian Advance

The world is dividing into two fundamentally different governing philosophies. Broadly speaking one hand are the authoritarian mainly Russia, China plus places like Cuba, Venezuela, N Korea,Iran. On the other are the liberal democracies, most of Western Europe, UK, US plus such as Japan, S Korea.

Authoritarian countries espouse the idea of a strong leader who brooks no opposition and citizens are expectedly to do as they are told. Their citizens are subject to surveillance and their behaviours proscribed. Government propaganda replaces objective information. Authoritarian countries often pay lip service to democracy without any real attempt to obey its norms; indeed subvert it to achieve the leaders aims. Most worrying of all authoritarian countries tend to be aggressive, unhesitating to bully, threaten and even attack others who disagree. They have contempt for the rule of law in any meaningful way seeing it as another way to exert control.

In contrast liberal democracies have a free press and economy, apply democracy and have a functioning and objective legal system. In general liberal democracies have also more religious and social freedoms.

The aggression of authoritarian systems is being tragically shown in the Russian attack on Ukraine. In a steady manner Ukraine was moving from the previous Soviet control towards becoming a typical Western nation. This was an imperfect change but transitioning from the Soviet style to a Western one was always going to be slow.

There has been reporting of Russian objectives which we can dismiss as a fairy story only for the extremely gullible. There has also been a speculation about the real motives. Putin was brought up in the Soviet era. He became, as a KGB agent, into an important and prestigious role. He seeks to go back to that era.

The prime authoritarian government is in China. The secretive rulers loudly proclaim communism and maintain the most rigid control. Their aggression is shown by their imposition of tight control in Hong Kong despite solemn agreements not to do so. They maintain that Taiwan belongs to them and unhesitatingly bully all who attempt to maintain diplomatic contacts. The state control over media is absolute including internet control through a massive firewall insulating Chinese people from the cacophony of full internet use. Any information which the leadership doesn’t like is blocked.

Outside the two major counties Russia and China there are others who are authoritarian. Most often this is in an effort to maintain existing rulers. The playbook is drearily familiar; wangle power then manipulate to maintain that power whether by election rigging or by avoiding elections completely. Motivations are sometimes ideological but just as often it is a wish to enjoy wealth and power by corrupting state institutions.

One of the tragedies of democracy is that electorates can be persuaded to vote leaders into power not realising they will never have any opportunity to vote them out. Once in power the state can be manipulated. Key is to keep the armed forces or police sweet and use them to keep the population in line. Popular uprisings can occur but it takes great courage and any leader willing to be ruthless can withstand popular pressure. An example was Belarus where Lukashenko put down an uprising successfully.

In countries without any of the attributes of a modern society this is surprisingly easy. Even a country with a strong tradition of freedom such as the US can show an authoritarian streak as in denying freedom to abortion. Despite a clear majority in favour of full freedom it is possible for dedicated campaigners to use state controls to impose their views.

Religious or pseudo religious intolerance is still found in countries like Iran or Afghanistan. Purportedly Islamic rules appear more to reflect a strong cultural bias. It is a great tragedy that Afghanistan has been allowed to step back to a point where women are subject to such a misogynistic life.

Nothing lays a country open to abuse as shear incompetence of its rulers. Sri Lanka is a recent example where a “strong man” proved utterly incompetent. Sadly all to often those leaders who see themselves in strong man role find favour with authoritarian regimes. They may aspire to be a Putin themselves. Even countries with at least some semblance of a liberal society may find themselves with leaders of this type such as Bolsanario in Brazil and AMLO in Mexico.

 

Two cures for love

 

Two cures for love

My favourite poet is Wendy Cope. I enjoy her wry, humorous look at life and love. I was happy to attend a poetry workshop she gave at the Lichfield Festival some long time ago. She mentioned then that her early starting success had the cheeky title “Making cocoa for Kingsley Amis”. Amis was a well known literary figure from the 50’s until his death. He wrote acclaimed novels and was also a poet. Wendy Cope didn’t know him but his name in her title attracted attention.

More recently she has herself talked at the Festival about her book which is largely about her life and role as radio and TV critic. She bemoaned the fact that it is extremely hard to make a living from poetry. In fact almost all poets like herself have to support themselves doing other things. For example one of the greatest modern poets was Philip Larkin. His day job was as librarian at Hull University devoting his spare time to writing. As Wendy Cope points out not only do poetry books sell rather poorly but snippets of that poetry are freely quoted. In the latter case the author may receive an acknowledgement ( often not even that ) but never any payment.

As a consequence she is very conscious of her authorial rights. So much so that her partner jokes that her gravestone will be marked “all rights reserved”. I’m at least acknowledging in her advice to girls entitled “two cures for love”

Don’t see him. Don’t phone or write a letter

The easy way- get to know him better

Following her example I compose- Two cures for love

Don’t call, make sure all communication ceased

The easy way- marry the beast

I heard on the radio

 

I heard it on the radio

When I was young up until 15 we did not have mains electricity. This was accompanied by no mains sewer as the price of living in the countryside. The source of entertainment and news was the radio which was immensely important. We had a cumbersome battery wireless as it was always called then. This necessitated a lead acid accumulator which had to be changed every five days or so and a large dry battery ( the size of two house bricks ) supplying the high voltage. This had be renewed every few months.. The accumulators were duplicated with one in use and one on charge in the nearest village. The result was exasperation when the accumulator ran out and mother had to cycle off to exchange it.

I say mother because with my father on afternoon shift not finishing until 10pm I perforce had mothers choice of programmes on weekday evenings. The news of course and then a gamut of programmes to keep us amused and informed. Of course it was at mothers knee that I listened to Children’s Hour with the closing line from Uncle Mac “Goodnight children, everywhere”. After this tea time listening I was soon hearing the programmes designed for adults.

I can just remember ITMA although it is Jack Train I remember more than Tommy Handley, the comedian around whom the show was built. A long running character was Jack Train playing a boozy Colonel who turned every comment into an invitation for a drink. His catch phrase was “I don’t mind if I do”.

A little later “Take it from here” and “Much binding in the Marsh” were favourite comedy shows. Perhaps the favourite from 1954 onwards was Hancock’s Half Hour. Starting with the tuba music and a breathy H...H…Hancock’s Half Hour. Hancock’s house had Bill Kerr and Sid James as regular companions enticing Hancock ( or rather ‘Ancock ) into some silly idea. There was a rather downplayed female part which never took off until Hattie Jacques appeared later in the series. Hancock plays a rather pathetic man with grandiose ideas which he never lives up to.

During the series Kenneth Williams played an increasing role both as a snide companion and many other voices also. I have been looking at a book on the series and I cannot find the programme on Stonehenge. Williams plays the caretaker who worries that the stones might be stolen so he takes them home at night. When Hancock bemusedly asks how he does this the reply is  “On my bike”

This kind of surrealism works on radio but when Hancock started on TV ( and I lost interest ) it is impossible.

I was always kind of bored by long running Friday night is music night. An awful lot of current affairs I learned from Any Questions. The format was alternating serious and light hearted questions answered by leading politicians with a leavening of non political panellists. Counrtymen Ralph Wightman and A G Street were often among the non politicians. A few political figures outside the leading ranks provided often light relief. Such was Gerald Nabarro who was always incensed when his name was mispronounced so he would give his preferred pronunciation loudly and emphatically ( naBARro).

I never hear the description of sports without hearing Wightman saying that football, cricket etc. were games, not sports. His definition of sport was always greeted with laughter applause as pronounced in an upper class way and defined as the pursuit of a quarry for the pleasure of the pursuer- huntin’, shootin’, fishin’, and courtin’. I can’t help but notice that the ultimate sporting contest is called the Olympic Games. However I guess that sports is now so embedded as a word that no change is likely.

Radio at this time ( 40’s early 50’s ) was a BBC monopoly. Well actually not quite as Radio Luxembourg based outside the UK was broadcasting commercial radio in English with the trouble being it couldn’t be received in daytime except by superior sets. After dark as atmospheric conditions changed it could be rather poorly received even with our equipment. I certainly listened a bit particularly enjoying “Smash hits”. The premiss was that listeners wrote in to nominate songs and their reason for disliking them. The record was then played and ceremoniously smashed at the end. The era of breakable shellac records was just coming to an end as unbreakable vinyl was becoming more common. Thus it was quite plausible that records could be smashed and indeed the sound of destruction was impressive.

At the end of the fifties “pirate” radio began. Based aboard ships moored outside UK territorial waters these broadcast a continuous diet of pop music. They became increasingly popular through the early 60’s. Radio Caroline was easily received while Radio London was another competitor. For some reason the Labour party under Harold Wilson took great exception to these examples of enterprise albeit at a low cultural level and by making any form of support onshore illegal squeezed them out of existence.

So popular was the pop music format that the BBC was reorganised with Radio 1 effectively taking the place of the pirates although without ads. This replaced the 3 channel structure of Light , Home and Third channels.  Very roughly Radio 2 replaced the Light programme and Radio 4 the Home Service. The Third programme was very much a minority highbrow  service. I can’t recall listening to any more than a concert or two which was always of classical music ( often of less well known items ). Very roughly the Light programme broadcast entertainment while the Home service served news and talk programmes although with overlap between the two channels..

James Webb Space Telescope

 

 James Webb space telescope

This ambitious telescope is intended to replace the Hubble telescope which has worked well after it’s initial problems. The James Webb space telescope ( JWST ) is a rather different and much more complex telescope, It works mainly in the infra-red  ( IR ) region of light. Humans cannot see in this region although it can be felt as warming if it is absorbed. The electromagnetic spectrum consists of far more than the light we can see down through X rays and up ( in wavelength ) through radio waves.

The infra red region was chosen for the reason it is very difficult for earth bound telescopes to observe because of absorption in the atmosphere. Areas of dust which are opaque in visible light can be transparent in the infra red. A very important reason is that light from very distant objects are usually travelling away at very high speeds. Light emitted by them has its visible light “stretched” by the Doppler effect so that it falls into the infra red region. The Doppler effect is the change in frequency of radiation experienced by an observer of an object travelling towards or away. The common experience is the change in pitch of sound experienced on a platform as a train passes by. High at first as the waves are “compressed” as the train approaches then falling to a lower pitch as the train passes away.

Because light travels at a finite speed as objects are further away their light takes longer to reach us. Light from the nearest star takes about 4 years to reach earth .As we look deeper into the universe so we are looking back in time. It is thought that the JWST will enable the very early universe to be observed because it will look at objects so far distant. It is speculated that the JWST will enable the formation of stars after the big bang to be seen. The very early universe will probably be opaque but the JWST may reach back as far as it is possible to go.

Because it is mainly an IR telescope it has a slightly strange shape. Essentially the telescope sits on top of a large sunshade. This ensures that the side in shadow ( the telescope side ) is  cold. Very cold indeed which is needed for IR viewing. The very large telescope of some 6.5 metre diameter ( compares to Hubble about 2.5metre ) is made up of 18 hexagonal segments all of whom need to be very precisely aligned with each other so that effectively they become one whole. These mirror segments reflect onto one target held in front of the mirror The mirror segments are of gold deposited on a beryllium substrate.

The JWST is positioned in space orbiting the spot where the sun and earth’s gravity just balance out. This is known as the L2 Lagrange point. It should enable the telescope to remain in nearly one position while expending the minimum amount of energy.

The JWST is very expensive. It will have cost an estimated $10bn by the time it becomes fully operational which is expected in May. It was launched last year and has spent until now reaching its final position and aligning its mirrors.  Because the whole had to be packed into a rocket nosecone much had be folded up and then unfurled in space. Because of this elaborate design and overall complexity the cost has risen from the original budget of $0.5bn. Such a cost had to be shared between NASA, ESA and the Canadian Space Agency ( presumably the UK was then part of ESA ) An estimated 250 companies were involved in the project ( 21 from the UK ) and several thousands of scientists and engineers. Launch of such a complex and expensive payload was by ESA Ariane rocket from French Guiana. One imagines that there was a lot of anxiety during the launch and subsequent deployment. While it is still too early to state that everything is as designed all the evidence so far is that things are going to plan.

The early months of the JWST operation already have science programs planned. Subsequent operations during the planned 10 year life remain somewhat flexible but certainly include observation of exoplanets as well as a variety of astrophysics .Some of the early experiments will assess the usefulness of JWST for things like study of the solar system after a specific study of Jupiter. However at this stage much is unknown and part of the hope is that JWST discover new things. At present astrophysics is confounded by the knowledge that dark matter and dark energy make up a large portion of the universe ( 90% + )  but other than giving them a name no more is known.

The massive cost over-run of JWST bodes ill for big science projects. The difficulty is that the study of complex physics tends to require large and expensive equipment. Examples are the gravitational wave detection ( LIGO ) and the large hadron collider at CERN. To some extent the gigantic costs are offset by international co-operation. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine it looks as through Russian participation is doubtful. They are already withdrawing from the international space station. Although these large international projects are very expensive they are also very productive with entirely new areas explored and involving many hundreds of scientists.

Perhaps the most expensive and complex international endeavour under construction at present is ITER which attempts to be a major step towards making fusion energy practical.James Webb space telescope

This ambitious telescope is intended to replace the Hubble telescope which has worked well after it’s initial problems. The James Webb space telescope ( JWST ) is a rather different and much more complex telescope, It works mainly in the infra-red  ( IR ) region of light. Humans cannot see in this region although it can be felt as warming if it is absorbed. The electromagnetic spectrum consists of far more than the light we can see down through X rays and up ( in wavelength ) through radio waves.

The infra red region was chosen for the reason it is very difficult for earth bound telescopes to observe because of absorption in the atmosphere. Areas of dust which are opaque in visible light can be transparent in the infra red. A very important reason is that light from very distant objects are usually travelling away at very high speeds. Light emitted by them has its visible light “stretched” by the Doppler effect so that it falls into the infra red region. The Doppler effect is the change in frequency of radiation experienced by an observer of an object travelling towards or away. The common experience is the change in pitch of sound experienced on a platform as a train passes by. High at first as the waves are “compressed” as the train approaches then falling to a lower pitch as the train passes away.

Because light travels at a finite speed as objects are further away their light takes longer to reach us. Light from the nearest star takes about 4 years to reach earth .As we look deeper into the universe so we are looking back in time. It is thought that the JWST will enable the very early universe to be observed because it will look at objects so far distant. It is speculated that the JWST will enable the formation of stars after the big bang to be seen. The very early universe will probably be opaque but the JWST may reach back as far as it is possible to go.

Because it is mainly an IR telescope it has a slightly strange shape. Essentially the telescope sits on top of a large sunshade. This ensures that the side in shadow ( the telescope side ) is  cold. Very cold indeed which is needed for IR viewing. The very large telescope of some 6.5 metre diameter ( compares to Hubble about 2.5metre ) is made up of 18 hexagonal segments all of whom need to be very precisely aligned with each other so that effectively they become one whole. These mirror segments reflect onto one target held in front of the mirror The mirror segments are of gold deposited on a beryllium substrate.

The JWST is positioned in space orbiting the spot where the sun and earth’s gravity just balance out. This is known as the L2 Lagrange point. It should enable the telescope to remain in nearly one position while expending the minimum amount of energy.

The JWST is very expensive. It will have cost an estimated $10bn by the time it becomes fully operational which is expected in May. It was launched last year and has spent until now reaching its final position and aligning its mirrors.  Because the whole had to be packed into a rocket nosecone much had be folded up and then unfurled in space. Because of this elaborate design and overall complexity the cost has risen from the original budget of $0.5bn. Such a cost had to be shared between NASA, ESA and the Canadian Space Agency ( presumably the UK was then part of ESA ) An estimated 250 companies were involved in the project ( 21 from the UK ) and several thousands of scientists and engineers. Launch of such a complex and expensive payload was by ESA Ariane rocket from French Guiana. One imagines that there was a lot of anxiety during the launch and subsequent deployment. While it is still too early to state that everything is as designed all the evidence so far is that things are going to plan.

The early months of the JWST operation already have science programs planned. Subsequent operations during the planned 10 year life remain somewhat flexible but certainly include observation of exoplanets as well as a variety of astrophysics .Some of the early experiments will assess the usefulness of JWST for things like study of the solar system after a specific study of Jupiter. However at this stage much is unknown and part of the hope is that JWST discover new things. At present astrophysics is confounded by the knowledge that dark matter and dark energy make up a large portion of the universe ( 90% + )  but other than giving them a name no more is known.

The massive cost over-run of JWST bodes ill for big science projects. The difficulty is that the study of complex physics tends to require large and expensive equipment. Examples are the gravitational wave detection ( LIGO ) and the large hadron collider at CERN. To some extent the gigantic costs are offset by international co-operation. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine it looks as through Russian participation is doubtful. They are already withdrawing from the international space station. Although these large international projects are very expensive they are also very productive with entirely new areas explored and involving many hundreds of scientists.

Perhaps the most expensive and complex international endeavour under construction at present is ITER which attempts to be a major step towards making fusion energy practical.

This ambitious telescope is intended to replace the Hubble telescope which has worked well after it’s initial problems. The James Webb space telescope ( JWST ) is a rather different and much more complex telescope, It works mainly in the infra-red  ( IR ) region of light. Humans cannot see in this region although it can be felt as warming if it is absorbed. The electromagnetic spectrum consists of far more than the light we can see down through X rays and up ( in wavelength ) through radio waves.

The infra red region was chosen for the reason it is very difficult for earth bound telescopes to observe because of absorption in the atmosphere. Areas of dust which are opaque in visible light can be transparent in the infra red. A very important reason is that light from very distant objects are usually travelling away at very high speeds. Light emitted by them has its visible light “stretched” by the Doppler effect so that it falls into the infra red region. The Doppler effect is the change in frequency of radiation experienced by an observer of an object travelling towards or away. The common experience is the change in pitch of sound experienced on a platform as a train passes by. High at first as the waves are “compressed” as the train approaches then falling to a lower pitch as the train passes away.

Because light travels at a finite speed as objects are further away their light takes longer to reach us. Light from the nearest star takes about 4 years to reach earth .As we look deeper into the universe so we are looking back in time. It is thought that the JWST will enable the very early universe to be observed because it will look at objects so far distant. It is speculated that the JWST will enable the formation of stars after the big bang to be seen. The very early universe will probably be opaque but the JWST may reach back as far as it is possible to go.

Because it is mainly an IR telescope it has a slightly strange shape. Essentially the telescope sits on top of a large sunshade. This ensures that the side in shadow ( the telescope side ) is  cold. Very cold indeed which is needed for IR viewing. The very large telescope of some 6.5 metre diameter ( compares to Hubble about 2.5metre ) is made up of 18 hexagonal segments all of whom need to be very precisely aligned with each other so that effectively they become one whole. These mirror segments reflect onto one target held in front of the mirror The mirror segments are of gold deposited on a beryllium substrate.

The JWST is positioned in space orbiting the spot where the sun and earth’s gravity just balance out. This is known as the L2 Lagrange point. It should enable the telescope to remain in nearly one position while expending the minimum amount of energy.

The JWST is very expensive. It will have cost an estimated $10bn by the time it becomes fully operational which is expected in May. It was launched last year and has spent until now reaching its final position and aligning its mirrors.  Because the whole had to be packed into a rocket nosecone much had be folded up and then unfurled in space. Because of this elaborate design and overall complexity the cost has risen from the original budget of $0.5bn. Such a cost had to be shared between NASA, ESA and the Canadian Space Agency ( presumably the UK was then part of ESA ) An estimated 250 companies were involved in the project ( 21 from the UK ) and several thousands of scientists and engineers. Launch of such a complex and expensive payload was by ESA Ariane rocket from French Guiana. One imagines that there was a lot of anxiety during the launch and subsequent deployment. While it is still too early to state that everything is as designed all the evidence so far is that things are going to plan.

The early months of the JWST operation already have science programs planned. Subsequent operations during the planned 10 year life remain somewhat flexible but certainly include observation of exoplanets as well as a variety of astrophysics .Some of the early experiments will assess the usefulness of JWST for things like study of the solar system after a specific study of Jupiter. However at this stage much is unknown and part of the hope is that JWST discover new things. At present astrophysics is confounded by the knowledge that dark matter and dark energy make up a large portion of the universe ( 90% + )  but other than giving them a name no more is known.

The massive cost over-run of JWST bodes ill for big science projects. The difficulty is that the study of complex physics tends to require large and expensive equipment. Examples are the gravitational wave detection ( LIGO ) and the large hadron collider at CERN. To some extent the gigantic costs are offset by international co-operation. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine it looks as through Russian participation is doubtful. They are already withdrawing from the international space station. Although these large international projects are very expensive they are also very productive with entirely new areas explored and involving many hundreds of scientists.

Perhaps the most expensive and complex international endeavour under construction at present is ITER which attempts to be a major step towards making fusion energy practical.

Motoring in a Minor key

 

Motoring in a Minor Key

My first car ( actually a van ) I bought when I was 22. Strictly I had a hand me down car from Annette’s father before which I drove on private colliery  road before. Also I only could afford to pay half of the princely sum of £75 with father contributing the other half. Advertised by Research Garage, so called because of the nearby Motor Industry Research base. They brought it for me to see. I regarded Annette’s brother Ray as an expert in cars so I went with them so he could vet it. This was quite unnecessary, even rather foolish. He concentrated on the engine trying such things as removing the oil filler cap and assessing the amount of blow buy. This ignored the real corrosion problem. I had to have a new drivers side floor pan at the next MoT test.

My father offered half with a view to learning to drive himself. He was in a slightly strange situation. As an early motorcyclist when driving licenses were introduced in 1936 he was “grandfathered” a full licence. He had thus accompanied workmates who were learning although unable to drive himself. I was taking driving lessons in Leicester and as two wheeler myself I was reasonably familiar with the rules of the road. Thus I could gain experience on L plates accompanied by my father. His attempts at learning didn’t last long. He was in his sixties, had wasted back muscles and was slightly embarrassed to be taught by his son.

After the saga of my own test taken in a strange car in a strangle locality I took the van to park in the drive of my Leicester bedsitting room. I was frequently frustrated by starting difficulty. I learned the hard way about the effect of dampness on high voltage ignition. Compounding the problem I could not easily trickle charge the battery from my top floor room. The previous private own had put two seats in the back van portion; untethered. I now realise they were a safety nightmare.

The Morris Minor designed by Alec Issigonis ( later famous as the Mini designer ) was introduced in 1948. It was very innovative with torsion bar independent front suspension and lever arm shock absorbers. It was among the first to have rack and pinion steering which is now almost universal. Basing the body shape on the aerodynamic American cars of the time it had low mounted headlights along with split  windscreen and a 850cc sidevalve engine. At the rear was a conventional leaf sprung axle with telescopic dampers. This underpowered car was given a major facelift in 1957. The 950cc overhead valve BMC A series engine gave a much improved performance slightly dampened by headlights raised onto the wings to comply with new lighting regulations. Now called the Minor 1000 this was the version I bought. The only extra in the rather spartan interior was a heater, a  cylindrical fitting ahead of the gearlever. It seems amazing now that a heater was considered an extra.

Generally the van was reliable in my ownership although it did produce rather a lot of small niggles.. I gradually learned its idiosyncrasies. The only time it failed me could not have happened at a more embarrassing time. We were going to my cousins wedding in Sheffield. After the ceremony then off to the reception but the car wouldn’t start. Swift diagnosis as I couldn’t hear the starter motor engage told me that corrosion at the battery terminals was stopping larger current flow. The cure was simple involving taking off the battery terminals, cleaning and replacing. However I was wearing my wedding suit and in a hurry. Eventually we turned up in time for the wedding breakfast but I was hot and flustered.

A more satisfactory occasion was my honeymoon. Knowing my new brothers-in-law I tried to hide my car but it was found and I discovered two large fish , one wired to the exhaust manifold and one to the radiator. Fortunately we were changing into going away clothes at Annette’s house but removing the fish with fire tongs was still a slightly unpleasant job. Not as bad as if they had been undiscovered and left in situ. Our honeymoon caravan in Kirkcudbrightshire was accessible via a short cut by driving along a hard sand beach. I wonder now that I took the risk of getting stuck so nonchalantly.

My best friend’s mate had a Minor 1000 also and on a memorable night out in Birmingham extolled the virtues of two changes he had made. Firstly he had installed a windscreen washer( unusual in those days) Secondly he had fitted the first generation radial tyres ( as Pirelli Cinturato). Technically steel braced radials as Michelin X had been around for economy and durability for years but modern fabric braced radials for cars were a new departure. I recall he demonstrated the benefit to roadholding and in the process rather frightened me.

As I grew more confident in my mechanical skills I made the modification to provide a starting handle. These were becoming rather unusual by this time but I became adept at starting the car with the handle. The most major work I did was to decoke and valve grind, a top overhaul. Although I wasn’t to know it this experience led me later into a marathon  rebuild of a colleagues Minor 1000. He wanted to do the same and I casually said I would help. It turned out the pistons were burnt and eventually we finished up with a cylinder rebore and gearbox rebuild. There was a time when bits of the car were distributed in various colleagues garages across the Wirral as it developed into a big group effort.

We spent our first summer holiday camping in Cornwall. This caused the most puzzling failure of my ownership. Car electrics had never been my strong point and I was initially baffled when after a fuel tank feed pipe repair the fuel gauge didn’t work. The answer proved easy once I realised the repair had interposed an insulating section in the fuel pipe. Once bridged by a conductor the problem was solved.

All in all I had a happy experience in some 25000 miles until eventually it went in part exchange for a Hillman Imp to a dealer in Renshaw Street in Liverpool

Ukraine invasion

 

Ukraine invasion

I am surprised that this invasion came as a surprise to some. It has been clear for some time that a new Cold War era is beginning. Without immodesty I can say it was clearly prefigured in this blog. For example I wrote in the beginning of 2020 that the evidence was clear. There has been an atmosphere of naivety about developments in both Russia and China where a very different philosophy of life has emerged. In this axis of evil intent it is China who pose the greatest threat.

The philosophical difference can be summed up as the West sees individual freedom as overwhelmingly important and the state exists to provide a framework which allows this freedom to be exercised. In Russia, China and other minor states like Iran, Cuba and Venezuela the state is all important and the individual exists only to live as the state demands. These authoritarian states have rulers who are often self selected and rely upon a coercive state apparatus to continue as rulers. Individuals living in these states have little to no say in deciding who their rulers should be. Individual freedom is greatly curtailed in these states.

When the communist bloc collapsed in 1989 Russia didn’t change immediately. It took an attempted coup to establish Yeltsin as a leader with a  degree of popular support from 1991.There was then a period of some ten years when there was an effort to establish in  Russia a modern state with the rule of law, democracy and a free economy. In the hurried process of moving from a state dominated economy to a  free economy, resources were plundered by those we now call oligarchs. The population had for 70 years lived under state domination of news and information and adjusted slowly to the new conditions. A “strong” leader emerged in Putin who appealed to the nationalist sentiment among those who looked for central direction. Once elected Putin, originally an ex KGB officer, has steadily moved to revert back to the Soviet era. He yearns for the geopolitical situation as it existed post WW11. He is completely willing to use any force necessary to prevent any kind of popular rebellion no only in Russia itself but also in anywhere within what he sees as the Russian area of control extending to Belarus and the ‘stans.

Putin has surrounded himself with people who think as he does who are collectively known as the silovoki. The oligarchs and the siloviki are not necessarily one and the same although plenty are in both. He difference is that the oligarchs have grown rich through plundering under the Putin regime while the siloviki ( often ex KGB ) believe in resurrecting the cold war.

Although some areas of the Russian economy are supposedly free in practice the main industries are controlled by the state and run for the benefit of the oligarchs.  They know well that they must obey state nudges if they are to continue to extract the fabulous riches. They will remember years ago that any attempt to show free thinking will lead to expropriation and jail as was exemplified by the fate of the part owner of TNK, a major oil company.

It has been the height of naivety for free societies to continue to allow uninterrupted commerce. I have no sympathy for those companies who foolishly invested in Russia and now stand to lose those investments. Even more culpable has been allowing oligarchs to exploit all the advantages of a free society. Not for nothing has London been referred as Londonograd. It must also be said that many such as lawyers and the like have been only to happy to provide services to these oligarchs. It must also be said that there are others such as Saudi princes and Nigerian crooks who are exploiting the freedom of Western society.

Fundamentally Russia is not a strong country. Although improved since the communist era ( with a lot of Western investment ) the economy is based on export of oil and gas with weak manufacturing. Much emphasis is placed on armaments where in things like tanks Russia is a world leader. However the overall weaker economy means that Russia can barely afford its military machne. In general Russia does not have the best technology except in specific areas which have been selected as priorities. Also the Russian population having tasted limited freedom is less biddable than it was.

China is a different proposition. China has a strong and rapidly growing economy and its population is far more supportive of the state. China is less ethically diverse than Russia with over 90% Han Chinese. Minorities such as Uighurs and Tibetans are being steadily re-educated to follow the Chinese state. State control is more widespread with little access to outside media. The great Chinese firewall ensures the internet reflects its rulers wishes.

The aggressiveness of Chinese rulers ( its claims to Taiwan in particular ) have been met with lukewarm opposition. China has used its big economic strength to influence many countries to accept its claims in exchange for access to the Chinese market. The Chinese aggressiveness is seen by many of its citizens as asserting the nationalist even racialist views of many.

The control over individual freedom in many areas in China is accompanied by a large degree of economic freedom. China has progressed in a short period of some 30-40 years to become a first rank economic power with individual living standards vastly improved. The concept of freedom in the Western sense is happily exchanged by many for improved standards of living. Technological standards are rapidly improving aided by a lot of transfer from the West.

Fuelled by a combination of nationalism and ideology the Chinese leadership sees world domination as its target. They aim to replace individual freedom with their own political structure.

In looking at the world scene we must see more clearly the threat within the West by leaders who despise truth and honesty and consider only their own egos. It is a tragedy that Trump and his like has come to be such a force in US politics.

 

 

Aliens

 

Aliens

The subject of so many books and films it almost seems the aliens must exist. From the sublime to the ridiculous “little green men” have become a cliché. There are plenty of delusional folk who have seen, heard or been kidnapped by aliens. There is an active fantasy that an alien was dissected in Area 51 in the USA in 1949. Area 51 has become infamous for sightings of flying saucers and other alien space craft.

After all this craziness it comes as something a surprise that there is a serious scientific search for alien life. This is centred around the Search for Extra-terrestrial Intelligence ( SETI ) This operation is scanning the skies in the radio spectrum for any signal which might be from an extra-terrestrial. Any discussion of this serious organisation always begins with the Drake equation.

The Drake equation ( not really an equation at all) came from Drake, a serious scientist , musing there are a lot of stars in the universe, a lot of the stars probably have planets, a lot of the planets are the right distance from the star not to be either overheated or frozen, and so on. Drake reasoned that although the probability of a suitable home is very low there are so many possibilities ( many billions ) that is seems likely that life exists in other places in the universe.

There is a problem with this line of thinking. The universe is big, very, very big, so big that even at light speed radio waves take a very long time. Distances around the universe are often measured in light years, that is the distance light travels in a year. Even the closest star, Proxima Centauri is over 4 light years away. Let us say that humans have been sending out radio signals ( just via ordinary terrestrial radio ) for about 80 years. This means that the imaginary bubble around earth by which aliens could pick up a signal is only 80 light years across.

Turn this round, if we receive an alien signal it will be at least 80 light years away. Imagine a conversation where the message takes 80 years to reach the alien and 80 for his ( or her or its )  reply to reach us.

However life is not that simple- we are reading a message sent long ago ( remember it travels at light speed at best ). The intelligence concerned may have evolved , become extinct or just simply not be around at the same time we are looking.

In a sense this doesn’t matter. To get some sort of message would be of profound significance. That we couldn’t reply would not change the psychic shock..

Then there is the matter of how to communicate. There is general acceptance that it would be mathematical. This does not require language and is universally true. Any aliens must have the same maths as us. In practice SETI is looking for patterns for which there is no explanation from physical laws. SETI has seen a few anomalies but nothing approaching any pattern although not everything is explicable by known physics.

The practical interest is in exobiology. This is the study of biology away from the earth. All life on earth uses essentially the same chemistry. Although we don’t know the full story of the evolution of life we can say to the first approximation all life on earth is the same. There is huge interest in exploring for possible life on Mars. In its early history Mars was quite earth like and it was only later that Mars evolved into the cold, airless planet of today. Because the surface conditions are so harsh it is half expected that if microbial life exists it will be sub surface.

Because sufficient time wasn’t available before conditions changed for the worse it is not expected that anything other than the most elementary life will  be found but hopes are high that Martian microbes exist and will be found.

There will be a final conundrum on Mars. If the life has the same chemistry as earth then it may be the result of contamination. Care is taken to sterilise Marian landers which is relatively easy with robots but probably impossible for human explorers.

As for the wider question of alien life I’m at one with philosopher Wittgenstein “whereof I do not know, thereof I cannot speak”

Going electric 11

 Going Electric 11

Since I’ve done 3 months hybrid electric driving it might be time to give an account of my experience. In truth my experience has been fairly limited because of Covid. As a vulnerable person I’m sheltering which has meant our travel has been limited. I’ve had very little experience using the normal hybrid mode combining the use of electric and internal combustion  ( IC ) engine and none at all with the two modes of power combined together.

Pure electric driving is excellent. Before I had wondered about the true electric range as this has been a bone of contention with different standards. In this case Hyundai claim 30 miles and this is what I’ve got. This is the range from fully charged down to 15% charge at which point the car switches to its internal combustion engine. This level of charge is necessary for the car to run in hybrid mode switching between electric and IC. If anything this is a very slight underestimate of range as depending on route and driving style more than 30 miles is possible. Since most of our journeys are local this means that electric drive is the most usual mode of travel. Unfortunately this doesn’t mean no petrol is used. The car is heated by the IC engine  which means in winter the engine runs at tickover intermittently to warm the cabin.

The all electric performance is very good. I had thought that a 60bhp electric motor was not very generous but in practice it has no problems. If anything it is all too easy to find oneself exceeding the speed limit  because it is quiet yet powerful.. Hill climbing is fine and there always seems to be enough power to keep up with traffic. 70 mph is possible on motorways although I suspect at a cost in battery range.

I find I’m using the trickle charger from a domestic 13 amp socket to charge the battery. Although this takes maybe 4 hours with the car parked by the house, cable through a window, walk away and leave. There is a handy system to show the extent of charge and it automatically stops when fully charged. The only downside is that the window has to left open enough to pass the cable through which on cold days is shivery.

The electric revolution globally I see as another matter. Batteries have two big problems- they are heavy and expensive. Very roughly the 9kWh battery I have weights 100kg. While specific power to weight ratios are coming down there is little prospect of any major change just incremental improvements. The cost issue is even more vital. To have the modest battery in the Ioniq has cost roughly £4000 compared with the small battery in the self charging version. So to go from 2kWh to 9kWh is rather expensive. I particularly wanted the plug in version ( Annette insisted as the price of getting a new car ) but this is an issue with spreading electric usage. Again battery costs are coming down on a cost per capacity basis and I think the prospects are rather better than with weight per capacity.

The IC engine is another matter. I suspect Hyundai in searching for the best economy have gone a bit too far. The IC engine develops its power at high revs. Even quite minor hills have the car changing down a gear. Coming from a diesel car with a lot of low end torque I’m finding it a bit hard to adjust  At least the IC engine is fairly quiet and unobtrusive on fairly flat roads. I’ve been looking closely at the engine specification and it appears very modern in design and incorporates many of the latest features.

Hybrid mode driving is interesting. At a halt the IC engine stops and the electric accelerates from rest with the IC engine cutting back in as speed rises. The battery is recharged partly by regeneration and partly by the IC engine. If there is a period of slow speed then electric persists but I’m unclear for how long.

The circumstances of the purchase led me to take the highest spec option. Because this was immediately available and the high part exchange prices of last autumn meant the extra cost was negligible I took this rather the  somewhat lower spec I normally would have chosen. This means that I have a bewildering set of gizmos. Some are very useful such as sat nav  and memory seat adjustment. The lane keeping assistance is disconcerting as it tries to steer the car to keep in lane. While easily overcome I find it best switched off.

In an effort to make entering and leaving easier the steering wheel has the bottom section cut off so it is no longer round. I find this quite strange and something which I am getting familiar to using. The one thing I haven’t mastered is linking to music played through a mobile phone. I’m using the option of digital tracks on a USB stick. I can’t say that music in the car is a major concern. The radio is far easier to use than my previous car as the station linked to preset is now noted clearly.

All in all I’m well pleased and I feel I’m making my little contribution towards mitigating climate change